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Oversold bounce possible but outlook remains grim!

April 24th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The negative market regime is well backed by outright negative signals
  • Oversold bounce possible but any upcoming gains should turn out to be corrective
  • Stay in cash, as the risk-reward ratio is too low in the current market regime.

Market Review |

As highlighted in our latest call, U.S. stocks finished another week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.9% over the week to 33,811.40. The blue-chip average posted its fourth straight weekly decline and its ninth losing week of the last 11. The S&P 500 closed at 4,271.78 and posted a 2.8% weekly loss, marking its third straight one-week decline. The Nasdaq plunged 3.8% this week to end at 12,839.29. Nearly all key S&P sectors were negative for the week, staples and real estate were the only gainers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped to 28.2.

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Further confirmation for our cautious view!

April 17th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
  • Time to place a stop-loss at 4,450 since the up-trend quality deteriorated significantly

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8% over the week to 34,451.23. S&P 500 declined 2.1% for the week to finish at 4,392.59. The Nasdaq slumped 2.6% for the week to end at 13,351.08. Among the key S&P sectors, energy and materials were the best weekly performer, while technology dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a measure of investor uncertainty, traded near 22.7.

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Trend quality is deteriorating all across the board

April 10th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
  • Time to place a stop-loss at 4,450 since the up-trend quality deteriorated significantly
  • New all-time high in our WSC Sector Rotation Strategy

Market Review |

Markets were in consolidation mode last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3% week-to-date to close at 34,721.12. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.3% to finish at 4,488.28. The Nasdaq inched down about 3.9% on the week and ended at 13,711.00. Despite the week’s small losses, the three major averages are within striking distance of their record highs. Of the S&P sectors, health care led advancers, while the technology sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.2.

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Bear market rally or sustainable recovery?

April 3rd 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 20th.
  • Quality of the current uptrend continued to improve (even on a mid-term time perspective)
  • On a very short-term time perspective a sentiment-driven consolidation cannot be ruled out.
  • We decided to stop publishing the long-term section in our Weekly Market Timing Forecast since it has no impact on our forecast.

Market Review |

Last week, all three major U.S. averages finished a turbulent week nearly unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% during the week to close at 34,818.27. The S&P 500 managed to eke out a weekly gain of 0.1% to close at 4,545.86. The Nasdaq gained 0.7% for the week to end at 14,261.50. Among the key S&P sectors, real estate was the best weekly performer, while the financial sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 19.6.

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