Commitments of Traders Report |
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides inside information about purchases and sales of futures contracts. The largest players in each market are required to disclose their positions to the CFTC on a daily basis and this report is released weekly on Friday afternoon (the reporting requirement varies by commodity). These traders are separated into Commercial Hedgers and Large Speculators.
The positions of Small Traders are calculated by subtracting the total of contracts held by the reporting groups from all the contracts outstanding (Small traders are not required to report their positions). Commercial Hedgers hold a significant informational edge over other traders as far as fundamental supply-and-demand statistics are concerned. They tend to be early, but they are usually right on the long run, quite contrary to the small traders. Extreme divergences in long and short positions of small traders, large speculators and commercial hedgers have proven to be reliable indicators of important trend changes. In such cases it is not advisable to bet against the commercial hedgers. All other patterns are meaningless. The following charts show you the short positions of these three groups of market participants on a percentage basis. A 10-week moving average is applied to smooth out the swings.
Three different charts are available for each commodity:
- Short positions of all market participants (Large Speculators, Commercial Hedgers, Small Traders) on a percentage basis.
- Short positions of Small Traders only. Significant changes in those numbers give you an insight about prevailing sentiment.
- The Long/Short Ratio of Small Traders. This chart is computed by dividing the long and short positions of Small Traders. High readings indicate heavy buying by Small Traders which is bearish.
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“HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.” TRADING IN COMMODITY FUTURES OR OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS.
THIS RISK STATEMENT APPLIES TO ANY ILLUSTRATION OF PROFIT AND LOSS CONTAINED WITHIN THIS PUBLICATION.
It should also be noted that: STOP LOSS ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT LOSSES OR LOCK IN PROFITS. Depending upon market conditions, stop loss orders may be executed at prices substantially below or above the specified stop price.