Month: July 2022

July 31st 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
• Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

In line with our recent call, U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3% in the past five days to finish at 32,845.13. The S&P 500 added 4.3% over the week to finish at 4,130.29. The Nasdaq jumped 4.7% during the week to 12,390.69. All three major averages also recorded their best month 2022. The Dow rose to a 6.7% gain for July. The S&P 500 added 9.1% for the month. The Nasdaq Composite, while still in bear market territory, is up roughly 12.4%. Those were the biggest monthly gains for all three indexes since 2020. All key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 21.3. Read More

July 24th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
• Time to get back into the market by building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages finished the week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced nearly 2% for the week to end at 31,899.29. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 2.6%. and finished at 3,961.63. The Nasdaq advanced 3.3% from the week-ago close to 11,834.11. The discretionary sector led gainers among the S&P’s major sectors; health care and utilities were the only negative sectors for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.0. Read More

July 17th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment and seasonal factors are supporting a summer relief rally.
• Nevertheless, the trend quality is neglecting a sustainable recovery at the moment.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to go for a bargain hunt.

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s rally, all the major averages closed out the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than 0.2% over the week to 31,288.26. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 0.9% to finish at 3,863.16. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6% for the week to end at 11,452.42. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the energy sector. Staples was the only weekly gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.2. Read More

July 10th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected sentiment driven bounce in place.
• Currently, bounce can still be classified as bear market recovery
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio from a purely strategical point of view.

Market Review |

All three major averages finished up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8% for the week to close at 31,338.15. The S&P 500 gained 1.9% week to date to finish at 3,899.38. The Nasdaq jumped 4.6% over the week to end at 11,635.31. The Nasdaq has risen in five straight days for the first time this year. Among the key S&P sectors, the discretionary sector was the best weekly performer, while the utilities sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 24.6. Read More

July 3rd 2022  |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment is increasingly hitting contrarian levels.
• Nevertheless, no significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to act contrarian.

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s gains, all of the major averages posted their fourth down week in five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% for the week to finish at 31,097.26. The S&P 500 lost 2.2% during the week to end at 3,825.33. The Nasdaq finished at 11,127.85 and plunged 4.1% week to date. The S&P 500 posted a more than 16% quarterly loss – its biggest one-quarter fall since March 2020. For the first half, the broader market index dropped 20.6% for its largest first-half decline since 1970. The 30-stock Dow lost 11.3% in the second quarter, putting it down more than 15% for 2022. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, suffered its biggest quarterly drop since 2008, losing 22.4%. Those losses pushed the tech-heavy composite deep into bear market territory, down nearly 32% from an all-time high set in November. It’s also down 29.5% year to date. Among the key S&P sectors, the utilities sector was the best weekly performer, while the discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a measure of investor uncertainty, traded near 26.7. Read More