Author: RUDI_WSC

December 31st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive outlook
• No major deal-breaker visible for now
• Sentiment looks a bit stretched but not a major problem at the moment

Market Review |

Once again, U.S. stocks ended the week with gains. Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.8% this week to end at 37,689.54. The S&P 500 added 0.3% for the week to close at 4,769.83. The Nasdaq eked out a small weekly gain of 0.1% to close at 15,011.35. The Dow finished the year with a 13.7% gain, the broad index with a 24.2% performance and the Nasdaq rose 43.4% year to date. Among the key S&P sectors, staples was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.5. Read More

December 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected year-end rally still in place
• No major deal-breaker visible for now
• Short-term washout-event leaves market better positioned – at least for now

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a small weekly gain of 0.2% to end at 37,385.97. The S&P 500 added 0.8% in that time to close at 4,754.63. The Nasdaq recorded a weekly gain of 1.2% to finish at 14,992.97. The three major averages notched their eighth positive week in a row — a first for the S&P 500 since 2017 and for the Dow dating back to 2019. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by comm. services. Utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13. Read More

December 17th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected year-end rally still in place
• No major deal-breaker visible for now
• Sentiment looks increasingly stretched but has not reached critical levels yet

Market Review |

U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.9% week to date to close at 37,305.16. The S&P 500 advanced 2.9% as well and finished at 4,719.19, posting its longest weekly winning streak since 2017. The Nasdaq also gained 2.9% for the week and closed at 14,813.92. As of Friday, the Dow is higher on the month by 3.8%. The S&P 500 is up by 3.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 4.1% so far in December. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.3. Read More

December 10th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected year-end rally still in place
• No major deal-breaker visible for now although sentiment is increasingly becoming a burden
• Short-term seasonal driven volatility likely

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with small gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced less than 0.1% this week to end at 36,247.87. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain of 0.2% to close at 4,604.37. The Nasdaq advanced 0.7% for the week to close at 14,403.97. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.4. Read More

December 3rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected year-end rally still in place
• No major deal-breaker visible for now although sentiment is increasingly becoming a burden
• Market pace is likely to slow down as market is heavily overbought

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 2.4% this week to end at 36,245.50. The S&P 500 booked a 0.8% gain over the week and closed at 4,594.63. The Nasdaq advanced 0.4% for the week to close at 14,305.03. For November, the S&P and Nasdaq rallied 8.9% and 10.7%, respectively, to notch their best monthly performances since July 2022. The Dow surged 8.8% for its best month since October 2022. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. Comm. services were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 12.6. Read More

November 26th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Tactically, further confirmation for our year-end rally scenario
• Strategically, the risk-/reward ratio also looks now increasingly attractive
• New allocations in our Model Portfolios

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with solid gains. Closing at 35,390.15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 1.3% for the week. The S&P 500 ended at 4,559.34 and gained 1% this week. The Nasdaq added 0.9% for the week and closed at 14,250.85. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the health care sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 12.5. Read More

November 19th 2023  |

Key Takeaways

• Tactically, further confirmation for our year-end bounce scenario
• Very short-term perspective some profit taking into next week is quite likely Strategically, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.9% from last Friday’s close to end at 34,947.28. The S&P 500 finished at 4,514.02 and surged 2.2% on the week. The Nasdaq jumped 2.4% during the week to 14,125.48. The major averages each notched their third straight positive week. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 13.8. Read More

November 12th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Tactically, further confirmation for our year-end bounce scenario
• Very short-term perspective some profit taking into next week is quite likely
• Strategically, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with gains. Closing at 34,283.10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.7% for the week. The S&P 500 finished at 4,415.24 and gained 1.3% this week. The Nasdaq increased 2.4% for the week and closed at 13,798.11. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished at 14.2. Read More

October 29th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Expect further (stronger) selling pressure down the road

• Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario

• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished another week with brutal losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 2.1% over the week to 32,417.59. The S&P 500 closed at 4,117.37 and posted a 2.5% weekly loss. The Nasdaq plunged 2.6% this week to end at 12,643.01. Besides the utilities sector, all key S&P sectors were negative for the week, led by energy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.3.

Read More

October 22nd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Bounce was successfully running out of fuel last week
• Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review

All major indices finished the week deeply in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.6% over the week to 33,127.28. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 2.4% to finish at 4,224.16. The Nasdaq slumped 3.2% for the week to end at 12,983.81. Except energy and staples, all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished the week increased to 21.7. Read More

October 15th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected bounce in place but signs of fatigue visible
• Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly higher. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain of 0.8% to close at 33,670.29. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% during the week to end at 4,327.78. The Nasdaq declined 0.2% for the week to finish at 13,407.23. Among the key S&P sectors, the energy sector was the best weekly performer, while discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 19.3. Read More

October 8th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Stronger signs of capitulation are likely to trigger stronger oversold bounce
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

Mainly due to a stronger bounce on Friday, U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% during the week to close at 33,407.58. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain of 0.5% to finish at 4,308.50. The Nasdaq climbed 1.6% for the week and finished at 13,431.34. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 17.5.

Read More

October 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Ingredients for a stronger bounce are accumulating
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week mostly with a negative performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% over the week, to end at 33,507.50. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% from last week's close to finish at 4,288.05. The Nasdaq closed at 13,219.32, posting a tiny 0.1% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a 3.5% decline this month, the S&P 500 4.9% and the Nasdaq was off 5.8% in September. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posted their worst months this year. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by utilities. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 17.5. Read More

September 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market sentiment has not shown any signs of capitulation yet.
• Ingredients for an important low are still missing.
• Thus, expect further selling pressure ahead.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished a tough week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% over the week to 33,963.84. The S&P 500 retreated 2.9% for the week to finish at 4,320.06. The Nasdaq posted a 3.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,211.81. The S&P and the Nasdaq recorded their third straight negative week and worst weekly performance since March. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 17.2.

Read More

April 30th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week higher. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 0.9% to close at 34,098.16. The S&P 500 also gained 0.9% during the week to end at 4,169.48. The Nasdaq rose 1.3% for the week to end at 12,226.58. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 15.8.

Read More

April 23rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

All major indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.2% over the week to 33,808.96. The S&P 500 booked a small weekly loss of 0.1% to finish at 4,133.52. The Nasdaq declined 0.4% for the week to end at 12,072.46. Among the key S&P sectors, the staples sector was the best weekly performer, while comm. services dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 16.8.

Read More

April 16th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• Trend quality still signals that the S&P 500 will not have enough power to break substantially above its current trading range.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Major U.S. averages finished the week higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2% during the week to close at 33,886.47. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% for the week to close at 4,137.64. The Nasdaq managed to eke out a small weekly gain of 0.3% to end at 12,123.47. Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the real estate sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 17.1.

Read More

April 9th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week mainly with a negative performance. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average squeaked out a small gain of 0.6% to close at 33,485.29, the S&P 500 declined 0.1% during the week to end at 4,105.02. Also, the Nasdaq lost 1.1% for the week to end at 12,087.96. Among the key S&P sectors, the health care sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 18.4.

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