Oversold bounce likely but no reason to change our negative outlook!

October 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Ingredients for a stronger bounce are accumulating
  • Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week mostly with a negative performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% over the week, to end at 33,507.50. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% from last week's close to finish at 4,288.05. The Nasdaq closed at 13,219.32, posting a tiny 0.1% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a 3.5% decline this month, the S&P 500 4.9% and the Nasdaq was off 5.8% in September. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posted their worst months this year. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by utilities. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 17.5. Read More

Expect more pain ahead as there are no signs for an important low yet!

September 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Market sentiment has not shown any signs of capitulation yet.
  • Ingredients for an important low are still missing.
  • Thus, expect further selling pressure ahead.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished a tough week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% over the week to 33,963.84. The S&P 500 retreated 2.9% for the week to finish at 4,320.06. The Nasdaq posted a 3.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,211.81. The S&P and the Nasdaq recorded their third straight negative week and worst weekly performance since March. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 17.2.

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Uptrend Is Still Built On Extremely Weak Ground!

April 30th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week higher. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 0.9% to close at 34,098.16. The S&P 500 also gained 0.9% during the week to end at 4,169.48. The Nasdaq rose 1.3% for the week to end at 12,226.58. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 15.8.

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Negative Divergences Are Piling Up!

April 23rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

All major indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.2% over the week to 33,808.96. The S&P 500 booked a small weekly loss of 0.1% to finish at 4,133.52. The Nasdaq declined 0.4% for the week to end at 12,072.46. Among the key S&P sectors, the staples sector was the best weekly performer, while comm. services dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 16.8.

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Trend Still Driven By Large Caps Whereas Broad Market Remains Vulnerable

April 16th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • Trend quality still signals that the S&P 500 will not have enough power to break substantially above its current trading range.
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Major U.S. averages finished the week higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2% during the week to close at 33,886.47. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% for the week to close at 4,137.64. The Nasdaq managed to eke out a small weekly gain of 0.3% to end at 12,123.47. Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the real estate sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 17.1.

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Recovery Is Still Built On An Outright Narrow Leadership

April 9th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
  • Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high
  • Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week mainly with a negative performance. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average squeaked out a small gain of 0.6% to close at 33,485.29, the S&P 500 declined 0.1% during the week to end at 4,105.02. Also, the Nasdaq lost 1.1% for the week to end at 12,087.96. Among the key S&P sectors, the health care sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 18.4.

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