Forecast

Key Takeaways

• Expected bounce in place but signs of fatigue visible
• Trend quality is neglecting any sustainable recovery scenario
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

October 8th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Stronger signs of capitulation are likely to trigger stronger oversold bounce
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

Mainly due to a stronger bounce on Friday, U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% during the week to close at 33,407.58. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain of 0.5% to finish at 4,308.50. The Nasdaq climbed 1.6% for the week and finished at 13,431.34. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 17.5.

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Key Takeaways

• Ingredients for a stronger bounce are accumulating
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

September 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market sentiment has not shown any signs of capitulation yet.
• Ingredients for an important low are still missing.
• Thus, expect further selling pressure ahead.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished a tough week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% over the week to 33,963.84. The S&P 500 retreated 2.9% for the week to finish at 4,320.06. The Nasdaq posted a 3.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,211.81. The S&P and the Nasdaq recorded their third straight negative week and worst weekly performance since March. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 17.2.

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September 24th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market sentiment has not shown any signs of capitulation yet.
• Ingredients for an important low are still missing.
• Thus, expect further selling pressure ahead.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook, U.S. stocks finished a tough week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% over the week to 33,963.84. The S&P 500 retreated 2.9% for the week to finish at 4,320.06. The Nasdaq posted a 3.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,211.81. The S&P and the Nasdaq recorded their third straight negative week and worst weekly performance since March. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 17.2.

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Key Takeaways

• Trend quality is neglecting any stronger rally scenario
• Market looks outright vulnerable for stronger disappointments
• Keep the stop-loss at 4,320 (intraday)

Market Review |

September 9th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Trend quality is neglecting any stronger rally scenario
• Market looks outright vulnerable for stronger disappointments
• Keep the stop-loss at 4,320 (intraday)

Market Review |

The major U.S. indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.8% over the week to 34,576.59. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.3% to finish at 4,457.49. The Nasdaq plummeted 1.9% for the week to end at 13,761.53. Except energy and utilities, all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the industrials sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, treaded near 13.8.

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September 3rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market looks outright vulnerable for stronger disappointments
• Keep the stop-loss at 4,320 (intraday)
• New allocations in our Model Portfolios.

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week as all major U.S. averages posted weekly gains. Adding 1.4% on a weekly basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 34,837.71. The S&P 500 finished at 4,515.77 and increased 2.5% this week. The Nasdaq advanced 3.3% from last Friday’s close to end 14,031.81. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the technology sector. Utilities and staples were the only losers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 13.9.

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August 27th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market looks outright vulnerable for stronger disappointments
• Keep the stop-loss at 4,320 (intraday)
• New allocations in our Model Portfolios

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% during the week to close at 34,346.90. The S&P 500 eked out a weekly gain of 0.8% to finish at 4,405.71. The Nasdaq advanced 2.3% for the week and closed at 13,590.65. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 15.7.

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August 20th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Make or break set-up is forming
• Time to place a stop-loss at 4,320 (intraday)
• Buy signal for energy in our Sector Rotation Strategy

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2% this week to 34,500.66. The S&P 500 retreated 2.1% for the week to finish at 4,369.71. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a 2.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,290.78. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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August 13th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Unchanged positive outlook despite short-term consolidation expected.
• No signs of capitulation; downside potential limited.
• Mid-term market condition remains robust, supporting positive tone.

Market Review |

The consolidation period continued last week as major indexes finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average squeaked out a weekly gain of 0.6% to close at 35,281.40. The S&P 500 declined 0.3% during the week to end at 4,464.05. The Nasdaq lost 1.9% for the week to end at 13,644.85. Among the key S&P sectors, the energy sector was the best weekly performer, while technology dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 14.8.

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August 6th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Our positive outlook remains unchanged
• Sentiment looks a bit stretched at the moment
• Consolidation into mid-August possible

Market Review |

The major U.S. indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.1% over the week to 35,065.62. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 2.3% to finish at 4,478.03. The Nasdaq plummeted 2.9% for the week to end at 13,909.2. Except energy, all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the utilities sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, increased to 17.1.

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July 30th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our bull market scenario
• Trend quality remains outright strong
• Changes in the allocation of our WSC Model Portfolio Composite

Market Review |

In line with our recent outlook, U.S. stocks finished another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a weekly gain of 0.7% to end at 35,459.29. The S&P 500 added 1.0% in that time to close at 4,582.23. Both gauges closed out their third winning weeks in a row. The Nasdaq advanced 2% for the week to finish at 14,316.66. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. service sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished at 13.3.

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July 23rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Our positive outlook remains unchanged
• Trend quality looks quite high
• Allocation change in the WSC Sector Rotation Strategy

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week mostly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a 2.1% weekly gain to end at 35,227.69. The S&P 500 increased 0.7% over the week to close at 4,536.34. The Nasdaq lost 0.6% from last Friday’s close to finish at 14,032.8. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.5.market, traded near 13.3.

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July 15th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Our positive outlook remains unchanged
• Trend quality looks quite high
• Risk of sentiment driven washout-events/consolidation is increasing

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week with hefty gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.3% over the week to end at 34,509.03, notching its best performance since March. The S&P 500 added 2.4% for the week and closed at 4,505.42. The Nasdaq rose 3.3% from last Friday’s close to finish at 14,113.70. All key S&P sectors finished positively for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.3.

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July 9th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Our positive outlook remains unchanged
• Sentiment looks a bit stretched at the moment.
• Further consolidation into July possible

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2% during the week to close at 33,734.88. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% from last Friday’s close to 4,398.95. The Nasdaq declined 0.9% in that time period and finished at 13,660.72. Except real estate, all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the health care sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 14.8.

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July 2nd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our bull-case scenario as trend quality improved
• New all-time high in the Sector Rotation Strategy
• Changes in the allocation of our WSC Model Portfolio Composite

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week with solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2% over the week to end at 34,407.60. The S&P 500 gained 2.4% for the week and closed at 4,450.38. The Nasdaq rose 2.2% from last Friday’s close to finish at 13,787.92. For June, the S&P 500 gained 6.5% for its best monthly performance since October. The Nasdaq advanced 6.6% in that month. Both indexes notched a fourth consecutive positive month. The Dow climbed 4.6% in June, for its best month since November. All key S&P sectors finished positive for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 13.6.

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June 25th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Our positive outlook remains unchanged
• Short-term, healthy consolidation into early July possible
• Sentiment still does not show any extremes so far

Market Review |

All major indices finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.7% over the week to 33,727.43. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.4% to finish at 4,348.33. The Nasdaq declined 1.4% for the week as well to end at 13,492.52. All three averages broke multiweek winning streaks. Except health care, all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the real estate sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, finished the week unchanged at 13.4.

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June 18th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive outlook
• Sentiment looks quite stretched short-term but no extremes visible for now
• New all-time high in our Sector Rotation Strategy

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with stronger gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.3% during the week to finish at 34,299.12; its third positive week in a row. The S&P 500 added 2.6% in the same timeframe to close at 4,409.59 and recorded its fifth positive week in a row, the first such streak since November 2021. The Nasdaq jumped 3.3% from last Friday to end at 13,689.57. The heavy-tech index booked its best week since March and is up eight weeks in a row, its best winning streak since 2019. Except energy, all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the technology sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 13.

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June 11th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive outlook
• Trend quality improved all across the board
• Sentiment looks quite stretched short-term but no extremes visible for now

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended another week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a small weekly gain of 0.3% to end at 33,876.78. The S&P 500 added 0.4% in that time to close at 4,298.86, posting its fourth straight winning week. The Nasdaq eked out a small weekly gain of 0.1% to finish at 13,259.14. The heavy-tech index posted its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. Among the key S&P sectors, the discretionary sector was the best weekly performer, while staples dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 13.8.

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June 4th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• New all-time high in our WSC Sector Rotation Strategy
• We upgrade our strategic outlook to cautiously bullish
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with gains. Closing at 33,762.76, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2% for the week. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 1.8% and closed at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq finished at 13,240.77 and advanced 2% this week. All key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 14.6.

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May 28th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• S&P 500 Is Only Carried By Single Tech Names
• Market still remains extremely vulnerable for negative surprises
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0% during the week to close at 33,093.34. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly gain of 0.3% to finish at 4,205.45. The Nasdaq advanced 2.5% for the week and finished at 12,975.69. Most key S&P sectors finished in negative territory, led by the staples sector. Technology, discretionary and comm. services were the only gainers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 18.

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May 21st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Current level of the S&P 500 is still built on weak ground.
• Market still remains extremely vulnerable for negative surprises, despite minor improvements.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small weekly gain of 0.4% to end at 33,426.63. The S&P 500 added 1.7% in that period to close at 4,191.98. The Nasdaq increased 3.0% from last Friday’s close to 12,657.90. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 16.8.

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May 14th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Situation remains tense.
• Negative divergences continued to pile up.
• S&P 500’s strength is solely dependent on a few mega-cap techs.
• Risk for stronger negative surprises remains high.

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished another week mostly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.1% during the week to close at 33,300.62. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% from last Friday’s close to 4,124.08. The Nasdaq eked out a small weekly gain of 0.4% and finished at 12,284.74. Most key S&P sectors finished in negative territory, led by the Energy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 17.

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May 7th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market is getting out of gear, as negative divergences are piling up!
• Risk for stronger negative surprises remain high.
• Risk/reward of the current market regime remains below average

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week mostly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2% over the week to end at 33,674.38. The S&P 500 declined 0.8% from last week’s close to finish at 4,136.25. Both, the Dow and the S&P 500 logged their worst week since March. The Nasdaq closed at 12,235.41, posting a 0.1% weekly gain. Most key S&P sectors finished lower. The technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 17.2. Read More

April 30th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week higher. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain of 0.9% to close at 34,098.16. The S&P 500 also gained 0.9% during the week to end at 4,169.48. The Nasdaq rose 1.3% for the week to end at 12,226.58. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 15.8.

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April 23rd 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

All major indices finished the week in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.2% over the week to 33,808.96. The S&P 500 booked a small weekly loss of 0.1% to finish at 4,133.52. The Nasdaq declined 0.4% for the week to end at 12,072.46. Among the key S&P sectors, the staples sector was the best weekly performer, while comm. services dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 16.8.

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April 16th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• Trend quality still signals that the S&P 500 will not have enough power to break substantially above its current trading range.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Major U.S. averages finished the week higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2% during the week to close at 33,886.47. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% for the week to close at 4,137.64. The Nasdaq managed to eke out a small weekly gain of 0.3% to end at 12,123.47. Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the real estate sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 17.1.

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April 9th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week mainly with a negative performance. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average squeaked out a small gain of 0.6% to close at 33,485.29, the S&P 500 declined 0.1% during the week to end at 4,105.02. Also, the Nasdaq lost 1.1% for the week to end at 12,087.96. Among the key S&P sectors, the health care sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 18.4.

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April 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership.
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

The market recovered last week as all major U.S. averages posted decent gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 3.2% higher to end at 33,274.15. The S&P 500 added 3.4% in that time period to close at 4,109.31. The Nasdaq advanced 3.4% from last Friday’s close to end at 12,221.91.  All key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.7.

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March 26th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership.
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remain high.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small weekly gain of 0.4% to end at 32,237.53. The S&P 500 added 1.4% in that time period to close at 3,970,99. The Nasdaq increased 1.7% from last Friday’s close to 11,823.96. Most key S&P sectors finished positive for the week, led by the comm. services sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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March 19th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• No significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible
• Latest gains can still be classified as oversold bounce
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages finished a turbulent week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2% during the week to close at 31,861.98. The S&P 500, in contrast, was 1.6% higher for the week to close at 3,916.64. The Nasdaq jumped 4.4% from last Friday’s close and finished at 11,630.51. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.5.

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March 11th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Fast switch from a positive into a negative market regime
• The S&P 500 is vulnerable for further downside risks, together with a capped upside potential
• Strong and fast deterioration within our indicator framework was a game changer

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week finally with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.4% over the week to 31,909.64. The S&P 500 retreated 4.6% for the week to finish at 3,861.59. The Nasdaq posted a 4.7% loss for the week and finished at 11,138.89. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the financial sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 24.8.

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March 5th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 8th
• Consolidation still looks quite healthy in its nature.
• Ingredients for a late Q1 rally are accumulating (given sentiment, seasonal tailwinds and improving trend quality signals)

Market Review |

U.S. stocks closed the week with decent gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.8% over the week to end at 33,390.97 and snapped a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 recorded a weekly 1.9% gain to close at 4,045.64 and its first positive week in the last four. The Nasdaq advanced 2.6% from last Friday’s close to finish at 11,689.01. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the materials sector. Staples and utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.5.

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February 26th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 8th
• Current consolidation period still looks healthy in its nature
• It is a bit too early to take the chips from the table as the downside potential looks quite capped

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 3.0% this week to 32,816.92. The S&P 500 retreated 2.7% for the week to finish at 3,970.04. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a 3.3% loss for the week and finished at 11,394.94. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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February 19th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 8th.
• On a short-term perspective further volatile consolidation into deeper February likely.
• Outright weak trading days can be used to add exposure.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week nearly unchanged. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% to close at 33,826.69. The S&P 500 declined less than 0.3% during the week to end at 4,079.09. The Nasdaq rose 0.6% for the week to end at 11,787.27. Among the key S&P sectors, the discretionary sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 20.

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February 11th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Strategic outlook remains positive
• Short-term breather possible
• Weak trading days can be used to add exposure

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% over the week to 33,869.27. The S&P 500 edged 1.1% lower for the week to finish at 4,090.46. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 2.4% to end at 11,718.1. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the comm. services sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.5.

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February 5th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our bull-case scenario as trend quality improved
• Thus, we stick to our positive view until we see a change in the Big Picture Indictor
• Weak trading days can be used to add exposure

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week mostly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,926.01 and finished the week nearly unchanged (down 0.15%). The S&P 500 recorded a 1.6% gain over the week to close at 4,136.48. The Nasdaq jumped 3.1% from last Friday’s close to finish at 12,006.95, posting its fifth-straight winning week. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while the energy sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 18.3.

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January 28th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment driven breather looks increasingly likely
• However, trend and trend quality improved on all time-frames
• Thus, there is no reason to challenge our positive strategic outlook for the time being

Market Review |

In line with our latest call, U.S. stocks rallied strongly for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8% in the past five days to finish at 33,978.08. The S&P 500 added 2.5% over the week to finish at 4,070.56. The Nasdaq jumped 4.3% during the week to 11,621.71 and closed out its fourth week of gains. All three major averages are on pace for a month of gains. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Health care and utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.5.

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January 21st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market was relieving overbought conditions last week
• Decline caused a spike in our fear indicators, leaving the market better positioned
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7% over the week, to end at 33,375.49. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% from last week’s close to finish at 3,972.61. The Nasdaq closed at 11,140.43, posting a 0.6% weekly gain and its third positive week in a row. All of the major averages are still in positive territory for the year. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 19.9.

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January 15th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive strategic view
• We expect that the quite fresh rally is not at risk of fading out soon
• Any potential overbought or sentiment driven washout-even should be limited in price and time

Market Review |

In line with our latest strategic call, U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.0% from last Friday’s close to 34,302.61. The S&P 500 finished at 3,999.09 and surged 2.7% on the week. The Nasdaq jumped 4.8% during the week to 11,079.16. The S&P and Nasdaq each posted their second consecutive positive week and best weekly performance since November. Among the key S&P sectors, real estate was the best weekly performer, while staples dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.4.

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January 8th 2023|

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is about to establish but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days

Market Review |

U.S. stocks closed the first week of the year with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.5% over the week to end at 33,630.61. The S&P 500 recorded also a weekly 1.5% gain to close at  3,895.08. The Nasdaq advanced 1% from last Friday’s close to finish at 10,569.29. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by comm. services. Health care was the only decliner. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 21.1.

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January 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment is increasingly hitting extreme levels
• Currently, the quality of the downtrend still looks too strong to catch a falling knife
• Thus, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the final week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,147.25 and ended the week 0.2% down. The S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower for the week to finish at 3,839.50. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 0.3% to end at 10,466.88. Friday marked the final day of trading in what has been a painful year for stocks. All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three-year win streak. The Dow Jones Industrial fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, and is more than 20% below its record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1% (click here for more relevant market relevant statistics). Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the materials sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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December 25th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Further short-term seasonal support into the year-end possible
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9% during the week to close at 33,203.93. The S&P 500 finished at 3,844.82 and ended the week down 0.2%, posting its third straight weekly decline. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 10,497.86 and lost 2% for the week, also for the third down week in a row. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was by far the best weekly performer, while consumer discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.9.

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December 18th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Stronger deterioration within our indicator framework is confirming negative market regime
• Stronger seasonal gains possible, but outlook remains grim
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low for a strategic long position

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.7% over the week to 32,920.46. The S&P 500 retreated 2.1% for the week to finish at 3,852.36. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a 2.7% loss for the week and finished at 10,705.41. All averages notched a second consecutive week of losses. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the technology sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.6.

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December 11th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Trend condition of the S&P 500 changed fairly during the week
• The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
• Time to place a stop-loss at 3,903 since the uptrend quality deteriorated significantly

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.8% over the week to 33,476.46. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 3.4% to finish at 3,934.38. The Nasdaq shed 4% for the week to end at 11,004.62. All key S&P sectors finished negative for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.8.

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December 4th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected profit taking took place at the beginning of the week
• The trend quality continued to improve on all time frames
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended a volatile week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small weekly gain of 0.2% to end at 34,429.88. The S&P 500 added 1.1% in that time period to close at 4,071.70. The Nasdaq increased 2.1% from last Friday’s close to 11,461.50. Friday’s close marked the first time the three major indexes notched back-to-back weekly gains since October. Most key S&P sectors finished positive for the week, led by the comm. services sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 19.

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November 27th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Profit taking increasingly likely on a short-term time perspective
• However, quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend still looks quite high
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

In line with our recent call, U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with stronger gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.8% during the week to finish at 34,347.03. The S&P 500 added 1.5% in the same timeframe to finish at 4,026.12. The Nasdaq gained 0.7% from last Friday to close at 11,226.36. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the materials sector. Discretionary and comm. services were the only losers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 20.5.

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November 20th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Recent consolidation period looks healthy in its nature
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high
• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,745.69 and ended the week roughly where it started (0.01% lower). The S&P 500 edged 0.7% lower for the week to finish at 3,965.34. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 1.6% to end at 11,146.06. All three indexes are positive for the month, however. Among the key S&P sectors, staples were the best weekly performer, while the discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.1.

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November 13th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
• Time to get back into the market by building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week as all major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains (mainly driven by a strong up-day on Thursday). Adding 4.1% on a weekly basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,747.86. The S&P 500 finished at 3,992.93 and jumped 5.9% this week. The broad index closed out its best week since June. The Nasdaq rocketed 8.1% from last Friday’s close to end 11,323.33. It was its best week since March. Among the key S&P sectors, technology was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 22.5.

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