Forecast

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive outlook
• Trend quality improved all across the board
• Sentiment looks quite stretched short-term but no extremes visible for now

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• New all-time high in our WSC Sector Rotation Strategy
• We upgrade our strategic outlook to cautiously bullish
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• S&P 500 Is Only Carried By Single Tech Names
• Market still remains extremely vulnerable for negative surprises
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Current level of the S&P 500 is still built on weak ground.
• Market still remains extremely vulnerable for negative surprises, despite minor improvements.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Situation remains tense.
• Negative divergences continued to pile up.
• S&P 500's strength is solely dependent on a few mega-cap techs.
• Risk for stronger negative surprises remains high.

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Market is getting out of gear, as negative divergences are piling up!
• Risk for stronger negative surprises remain high.
• Risk/reward of the current market regime remains below average

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• The air is getting thinner as negative divergences are piling up
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• Trend quality still signals that the S&P 500 will not have enough power to break substantially above its current trading range.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

April 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership.
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remains high.
• Regime only suitable for tactical trades since risk/reward for strategic investments remains below average.

Market Review |

The market recovered last week as all major U.S. averages posted decent gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week 3.2% higher to end at 33,274.15. The S&P 500 added 3.4% in that time period to close at 4,109.31. The Nasdaq advanced 3.4% from last Friday’s close to end at 12,221.91.  All key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.7.

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March 26th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Recovery is based on extremely narrow leadership.
• Risk for stronger waterfall declines remain high.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small weekly gain of 0.4% to end at 32,237.53. The S&P 500 added 1.4% in that time period to close at 3,970,99. The Nasdaq increased 1.7% from last Friday’s close to 11,823.96. Most key S&P sectors finished positive for the week, led by the comm. services sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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March 19th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• No significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible
• Latest gains can still be classified as oversold bounce
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages finished a turbulent week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2% during the week to close at 31,861.98. The S&P 500, in contrast, was 1.6% higher for the week to close at 3,916.64. The Nasdaq jumped 4.4% from last Friday’s close and finished at 11,630.51. Among the key S&P sectors, the technology sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.5.

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March 11th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Fast switch from a positive into a negative market regime
• The S&P 500 is vulnerable for further downside risks, together with a capped upside potential
• Strong and fast deterioration within our indicator framework was a game changer

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week finally with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.4% over the week to 31,909.64. The S&P 500 retreated 4.6% for the week to finish at 3,861.59. The Nasdaq posted a 4.7% loss for the week and finished at 11,138.89. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the financial sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 24.8.

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March 5th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 8th
• Consolidation still looks quite healthy in its nature.
• Ingredients for a late Q1 rally are accumulating (given sentiment, seasonal tailwinds and improving trend quality signals)

Market Review |

U.S. stocks closed the week with decent gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.8% over the week to end at 33,390.97 and snapped a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 recorded a weekly 1.9% gain to close at 4,045.64 and its first positive week in the last four. The Nasdaq advanced 2.6% from last Friday’s close to finish at 11,689.01. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the materials sector. Staples and utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.5.

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February 26th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 8th
• Current consolidation period still looks healthy in its nature
• It is a bit too early to take the chips from the table as the downside potential looks quite capped

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 3.0% this week to 32,816.92. The S&P 500 retreated 2.7% for the week to finish at 3,970.04. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a 3.3% loss for the week and finished at 11,394.94. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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February 19th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 8th.
• On a short-term perspective further volatile consolidation into deeper February likely.
• Outright weak trading days can be used to add exposure.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week nearly unchanged. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% to close at 33,826.69. The S&P 500 declined less than 0.3% during the week to end at 4,079.09. The Nasdaq rose 0.6% for the week to end at 11,787.27. Among the key S&P sectors, the discretionary sector was the best weekly performer, while energy dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 20.

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February 11th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Strategic outlook remains positive
• Short-term breather possible
• Weak trading days can be used to add exposure

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% over the week to 33,869.27. The S&P 500 edged 1.1% lower for the week to finish at 4,090.46. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 2.4% to end at 11,718.1. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the comm. services sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.5.

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February 5th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our bull-case scenario as trend quality improved
• Thus, we stick to our positive view until we see a change in the Big Picture Indictor
• Weak trading days can be used to add exposure

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended the week mostly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,926.01 and finished the week nearly unchanged (down 0.15%). The S&P 500 recorded a 1.6% gain over the week to close at 4,136.48. The Nasdaq jumped 3.1% from last Friday’s close to finish at 12,006.95, posting its fifth-straight winning week. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while the energy sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 18.3.

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January 28th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment driven breather looks increasingly likely
• However, trend and trend quality improved on all time-frames
• Thus, there is no reason to challenge our positive strategic outlook for the time being

Market Review |

In line with our latest call, U.S. stocks rallied strongly for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8% in the past five days to finish at 33,978.08. The S&P 500 added 2.5% over the week to finish at 4,070.56. The Nasdaq jumped 4.3% during the week to 11,621.71 and closed out its fourth week of gains. All three major averages are on pace for a month of gains. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Health care and utilities were the only decliners. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.5.

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January 21st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Market was relieving overbought conditions last week
• Decline caused a spike in our fear indicators, leaving the market better positioned
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7% over the week, to end at 33,375.49. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% from last week’s close to finish at 3,972.61. The Nasdaq closed at 11,140.43, posting a 0.6% weekly gain and its third positive week in a row. All of the major averages are still in positive territory for the year. Among the key S&P sectors, the comm. services sector was the best weekly performer, while industrials dragged the most. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options known as the VIX, ended at 19.9.

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January 15th 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Further confirmation for our positive strategic view
• We expect that the quite fresh rally is not at risk of fading out soon
• Any potential overbought or sentiment driven washout-even should be limited in price and time

Market Review |

In line with our latest strategic call, U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.0% from last Friday’s close to 34,302.61. The S&P 500 finished at 3,999.09 and surged 2.7% on the week. The Nasdaq jumped 4.8% during the week to 11,079.16. The S&P and Nasdaq each posted their second consecutive positive week and best weekly performance since November. Among the key S&P sectors, real estate was the best weekly performer, while staples dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 18.4.

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January 8th 2023|

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is about to establish but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days

Market Review |

U.S. stocks closed the first week of the year with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.5% over the week to end at 33,630.61. The S&P 500 recorded also a weekly 1.5% gain to close at  3,895.08. The Nasdaq advanced 1% from last Friday’s close to finish at 10,569.29. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by comm. services. Health care was the only decliner. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 21.1.

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January 1st 2023 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment is increasingly hitting extreme levels
• Currently, the quality of the downtrend still looks too strong to catch a falling knife
• Thus, the current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the final week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,147.25 and ended the week 0.2% down. The S&P 500 edged 0.1% lower for the week to finish at 3,839.50. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 0.3% to end at 10,466.88. Friday marked the final day of trading in what has been a painful year for stocks. All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three-year win streak. The Dow Jones Industrial fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, and is more than 20% below its record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1% (click here for more relevant market relevant statistics). Among the key S&P sectors, financials were the best weekly performer, while the materials sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.7.

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December 25th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Further short-term seasonal support into the year-end possible
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with a mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9% during the week to close at 33,203.93. The S&P 500 finished at 3,844.82 and ended the week down 0.2%, posting its third straight weekly decline. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 10,497.86 and lost 2% for the week, also for the third down week in a row. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was by far the best weekly performer, while consumer discretionary dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.9.

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December 18th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Stronger deterioration within our indicator framework is confirming negative market regime
• Stronger seasonal gains possible, but outlook remains grim
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low for a strategic long position

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.7% over the week to 32,920.46. The S&P 500 retreated 2.1% for the week to finish at 3,852.36. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a 2.7% loss for the week and finished at 10,705.41. All averages notched a second consecutive week of losses. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the technology sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.6.

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December 11th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Trend condition of the S&P 500 changed fairly during the week
• The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
• Time to place a stop-loss at 3,903 since the uptrend quality deteriorated significantly

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.8% over the week to 33,476.46. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 3.4% to finish at 3,934.38. The Nasdaq shed 4% for the week to end at 11,004.62. All key S&P sectors finished negative for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.8.

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December 4th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected profit taking took place at the beginning of the week
• The trend quality continued to improve on all time frames
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended a volatile week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small weekly gain of 0.2% to end at 34,429.88. The S&P 500 added 1.1% in that time period to close at 4,071.70. The Nasdaq increased 2.1% from last Friday’s close to 11,461.50. Friday’s close marked the first time the three major indexes notched back-to-back weekly gains since October. Most key S&P sectors finished positive for the week, led by the comm. services sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 19.

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November 27th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Profit taking increasingly likely on a short-term time perspective
• However, quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend still looks quite high
• No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

In line with our recent call, U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with stronger gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.8% during the week to finish at 34,347.03. The S&P 500 added 1.5% in the same timeframe to finish at 4,026.12. The Nasdaq gained 0.7% from last Friday to close at 11,226.36. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the materials sector. Discretionary and comm. services were the only losers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 20.5.

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November 20th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Recent consolidation period looks healthy in its nature
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high
• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,745.69 and ended the week roughly where it started (0.01% lower). The S&P 500 edged 0.7% lower for the week to finish at 3,965.34. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 1.6% to end at 11,146.06. All three indexes are positive for the month, however. Among the key S&P sectors, staples were the best weekly performer, while the discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.1.

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November 13th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
• Time to get back into the market by building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week as all major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains (mainly driven by a strong up-day on Thursday). Adding 4.1% on a weekly basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,747.86. The S&P 500 finished at 3,992.93 and jumped 5.9% this week. The broad index closed out its best week since June. The Nasdaq rocketed 8.1% from last Friday’s close to end 11,323.33. It was its best week since March. Among the key S&P sectors, technology was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 22.5.

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November 6th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Seasonal and sentiment driven bear market rally has come to an end
• Chances for renewed selling pressure are increasing
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

All major averages closed out the week with stronger losses. Ending four weeks of gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.4% over the week to 32,403.22. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 3.4% to finish at 3,770.55. The Nasdaq slumped 5.7% for the week to end at 10,475.25. Both gauges broke two-week winning streaks. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the comm. service sector. Energy was the best performer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.6.

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October 30th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Expect to see a slowdown as seasonal tailwinds are about to end soon
• Market still at risk for disappointments, although short-term trend quality improved
• Cautious outlook remains unchanged as further confirmation is needed

Market Review |

U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the week. Closing at 32,861.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 5.7% for the week. The S&P 500 finished at 3,901.06 and increased 3.9% this week. The Nasdaq gained 2.2% for the week and closed at 11,102.45. Nearly all key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the industrials sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.8.

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October 23rd 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected bounce in place and sentiment and seasonal driven stabilization likely.
• The quality of the bounce is still too low to justify a strategic bargain hunt
• Outlook remains unchanged as long as we do not see a significant recovery in trend quality

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week as all three major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average succeeded to gain 4.9% to close at 31,082.56. The S&P 500 finished at 3,752.75 and is up 4.7% for the week. The Nasdaq jumped 5.2% from last Friday’s close to end 10,859.72. It was the best week since June for all three major averages. Finally, all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 29.7.

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October16th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Chances for a stronger bounce are accumulating as signs of capitulation are visible
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished a turbulent week mostly with a negative performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% during the week to close at 29,634.83. The S&P 500, in contrast, was 1.6% lower for the week to close at 3,583.07. The Nasdaq slumped 3.1% from last Friday’s close and finished at 10,321.39. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 32.

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October 9th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Latest gains can be classified as bounce rather than the beginning of a new and sustainable uptrend
• The quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s strong declines, U.S. stocks finished the week with gains. Closing at 29,296.79, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2 % for the week. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 1.5% and closed at 3,639.66. The Nasdaq finished at 10,652.41 and eked out a 0.7% gain this week. Most key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 31.3.

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October 2nd 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Chances for a stronger bounce are accumulating as signs of capitulation are visible
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with sharp losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.9% in five trading days to 28,725.51. The S&P 500 lost 2.9% for the week as well and dropped to 3,585.62. The index closed out its worst month since March 2020. The Nasdaq tumbled 2.7% to close at 10,575.62. For September, the Dow tumbled 8.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%. Quarter to date, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrapped up their first three-quarter losing streak since 2009, losing 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively. The Dow dropped 6.7% in the third quarter and saw a third-straight losing quarter for the first time since 2015. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in the red for the week, dragged by the utilities sector. The energy sector was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended near 31.7. Read More

September 25th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Ingredients for a stronger bounce are accumulating
• Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
• The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

In line with our strategic view, the carnage continued as U.S. stocks finished a brutal week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.0% over the week to 29,590.4. The blue-chip closed below 30,000 for the first time since June 17. The S&P 500 closed at 3,693.23 and posted a 4.7% weekly loss. The Nasdaq plunged 5.1% this week to end at 10,867.93. All three averages capped their fifth negative week in six. All key S&P sectors were negative for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, increased to 29.9. Read More

September 18th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• In line with our latest call, bounce successfully turned out to be corrective in its nature!
• No signs for a bottom visible yet, although sentiment is hitting increasingly contrarian levels.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook. U.S. stocks finished the week finally with deep losses. Although the (corrective) bounce continued until Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.1% over the week to 30,822.42. The S&P 500 retreated 4.8% for the week to finish at 3,873.33. The Nasdaq posted a 5.5% loss for the week and finished at 11,448.40. The three major averages suffered their fourth losing week in five, and it was the worst week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since June. Moreover, all the gains from the previous bounce were literally wiped out in a few trading days. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the materials sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 26.2.

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September 11th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Further bouncing possible, but upside potential looks increasingly capped.
• Risk for renewed selling pressure remains high as bounce looks corrective in its nature.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to go for a bargain hunt.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with gains. Closing at 32,151.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.7% for the week. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 3.7% and closed at 4,067.36. The Nasdaq finished at 12,112.31 and jumped 4.1% this week. All three averages snapped a three-week losing streak. All key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 22.8.

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September 4th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

• Most positive divergence have been wiped out.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian.
• Market is quite oversold and, therefore, the chances for an oversold bounce are accumulating.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3% over the week to 31,318.44. The S&P 500 retreated 3.3% for the week to finish at 3,924.26. The Nasdaq posted a 4.2% loss for the week and finished at 11,630.86. All averages closed out their third straight week of losses. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the technology sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.5.

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August 28th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Tilt between supportive and corrective is quite narrow
• Further guidance within our short-term-oriented indicators necessary
• Time to place a stop-loss at 3,990 (closing basis).

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with heavy losses, which mostly occurred on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.2% over the week to 32,283.40. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 4.0% to close at 4,057.66. The Nasdaq dropped 4.4% for the week to end at 12,141.71. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while the technology sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, increased to 25.6.

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August 21st 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Market took its expected healthy breather last week
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% over the week to 33,706.74. The S&P 500 edged 1.2% lower for the week to finish at 4,228.48. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 2.6% to end at 12,705.22. Among the key S&P sectors, staples were the best weekly performer, while the communication sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.6.

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August 14th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
• Sentiment could be still a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

In line with our latest call, U.S. stocks continued to rally for another week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.9% from last Friday’s close to 33,761.05. The S&P 500 finished at 4,280.15 and rose 3.3% on the week, notching its longest weekly winning streak since November 2021. The Nasdaq surged 3.1% during the week to 13,047.19. This week’s moves have also extended a market rally off its mid-June lows. The S&P 500 has gained 16.7% since the lows, and has cut its losses from the peak in half. The Dow has gained nearly 13% and the Nasdaq Composite has rebounded 22.6%. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while staples dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 19.5. Read More

August 7th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
• Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 32,803.47 and declined 0.1% for the week. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.4% gain over the week to finish at 4,145.19. The Nasdaq advanced 2.2% from last Friday’s close to end at 12,657.56. Among the key S&P sectors, technology was the best weekly performer, while the energy sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.2.

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July 31st 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
• Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
• Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

In line with our recent call, U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3% in the past five days to finish at 32,845.13. The S&P 500 added 4.3% over the week to finish at 4,130.29. The Nasdaq jumped 4.7% during the week to 12,390.69. All three major averages also recorded their best month 2022. The Dow rose to a 6.7% gain for July. The S&P 500 added 9.1% for the month. The Nasdaq Composite, while still in bear market territory, is up roughly 12.4%. Those were the biggest monthly gains for all three indexes since 2020. All key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 21.3.

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July 24th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
• New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
• Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
• Time to get back into the market by building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages finished the week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced nearly 2% for the week to end at 31,899.29. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 2.6%. and finished at 3,961.63. The Nasdaq advanced 3.3% from the week-ago close to 11,834.11. The discretionary sector led gainers among the S&P’s major sectors; health care and utilities were the only negative sectors for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.0.

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July 17th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment and seasonal factors are supporting a summer relief rally.
• Nevertheless, the trend quality is neglecting a sustainable recovery at the moment.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to go for a bargain hunt.

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s rally, all the major averages closed out the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than 0.2% over the week to 31,288.26. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 0.9% to finish at 3,863.16. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6% for the week to end at 11,452.42. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the energy sector. Staples was the only weekly gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.2.

Read More

July 10th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

• Expected sentiment driven bounce in place.
• Currently, bounce can still be classified as bear market recovery
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio from a purely strategical point of view.

Market Review |

All three major averages finished up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8% for the week to close at 31,338.15. The S&P 500 gained 1.9% week to date to finish at 3,899.38. The Nasdaq jumped 4.6% over the week to end at 11,635.31. The Nasdaq has risen in five straight days for the first time this year. Among the key S&P sectors, the discretionary sector was the best weekly performer, while the utilities sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 24.6.

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July 3rd 2022  |

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment is increasingly hitting contrarian levels.
• Nevertheless, no significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible.
• Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to act contrarian.

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s gains, all of the major averages posted their fourth down week in five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% for the week to finish at 31,097.26. The S&P 500 lost 2.2% during the week to end at 3,825.33. The Nasdaq finished at 11,127.85 and plunged 4.1% week to date. The S&P 500 posted a more than 16% quarterly loss – its biggest one-quarter fall since March 2020. For the first half, the broader market index dropped 20.6% for its largest first-half decline since 1970. The 30-stock Dow lost 11.3% in the second quarter, putting it down more than 15% for 2022. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, suffered its biggest quarterly drop since 2008, losing 22.4%. Those losses pushed the tech-heavy composite deep into bear market territory, down nearly 32% from an all-time high set in November. It’s also down 29.5% year to date. Among the key S&P sectors, the utilities sector was the best weekly performer, while the discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a measure of investor uncertainty, traded near 26.7.

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