Seasonal Bounce Possible But Expect Further Selling Pressure Ahead

December 18th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Stronger deterioration within our indicator framework is confirming negative market regime
  • Stronger seasonal gains possible, but outlook remains grim
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low for a strategic long position

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.7% over the week to 32,920.46. The S&P 500 retreated 2.1% for the week to finish at 3,852.36. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a 2.7% loss for the week and finished at 10,705.41. All averages notched a second consecutive week of losses. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the technology sector. Energy was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.6. Read More

Downside Risks Are Increasing Again – Time To Place A Stop-Loss!

December 11th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Trend condition of the S&P 500 changed fairly during the week
  • The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
  • Time to place a stop-loss at 3,903 since the uptrend quality deteriorated significantly

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.8% over the week to 33,476.46. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 3.4% to finish at 3,934.38. The Nasdaq shed 4% for the week to end at 11,004.62. All key S&P sectors finished negative for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.8. Read More

Further Uptrend Confirmation As Trend Quality Intensified

December 4th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected profit taking took place at the beginning of the week
  • The trend quality continued to improve on all time frames
  • No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

U.S. stocks ended a volatile week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small weekly gain of 0.2% to end at 34,429.88. The S&P 500 added 1.1% in that time period to close at 4,071.70. The Nasdaq increased 2.1% from last Friday's close to 11,461.50. Friday’s close marked the first time the three major indexes notched back-to-back weekly gains since October. Most key S&P sectors finished positive for the week, led by the comm. services sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 19. Read More

Profit Taking Likely, But Underlying Tone Remains Positive!

November 27th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Profit taking increasingly likely on a short-term time perspective
  • However, quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend still looks quite high
  • No reason to change our strategic bullish outlook for the time being

Market Review |

In line with our recent call, U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with stronger gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.8% during the week to finish at 34,347.03. The S&P 500 added 1.5% in the same timeframe to finish at 4,026.12. The Nasdaq gained 0.7% from last Friday to close at 11,226.36. Most key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the materials sector. Discretionary and comm. services were the only losers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 20.5. Read More

Healthy Breather in Place – Expect Further Upside Afterwards

November 20th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Recent consolidation period looks healthy in its nature
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high
  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,745.69 and ended the week roughly where it started (0.01% lower). The S&P 500 edged 0.7% lower for the week to finish at 3,965.34. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 1.6% to end at 11,146.06. All three indexes are positive for the month, however. Among the key S&P sectors, staples were the best weekly performer, while the discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.1. Read More

Recovery All Across The Board Indicates a Strengthening Trend

November 13th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
  • New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
  • Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
  • Time to get back into the market by building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week as all major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains (mainly driven by a strong up-day on Thursday). Adding 4.1% on a weekly basis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,747.86. The S&P 500 finished at 3,992.93 and jumped 5.9% this week. The broad index closed out its best week since June. The Nasdaq rocketed 8.1% from last Friday’s close to end 11,323.33. It was its best week since March. Among the key S&P sectors, technology was the best weekly performer, while utilities dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 22.5. Read More

Bear Market Rally Has Come to an End

November 6th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Seasonal and sentiment driven bear market rally has come to an end
  • Chances for renewed selling pressure are increasing
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

All major averages closed out the week with stronger losses. Ending four weeks of gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.4% over the week to 32,403.22. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 3.4% to finish at 3,770.55. The Nasdaq slumped 5.7% for the week to end at 10,475.25. Both gauges broke two-week winning streaks. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the comm. service sector. Energy was the best performer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.6. Read More

Seasonal Tailwinds About to End Soon!

October 30th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expect to see a slowdown as seasonal tailwinds are about to end soon
  • Market still at risk for disappointments, although short-term trend quality improved
  • Cautious outlook remains unchanged as further confirmation is needed

Market Review |

U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the week. Closing at 32,861.80, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 5.7% for the week. The S&P 500 finished at 3,901.06 and increased 3.9% this week. The Nasdaq gained 2.2% for the week and closed at 11,102.45. Nearly all key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the industrials sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.8. Read More

Expected Seasonal Bounce in Place, but Trend Quality Remains a Burden

October 23rd 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected bounce in place and sentiment and seasonal driven stabilization likely.
  • The quality of the bounce is still too low to justify a strategic bargain hunt
  • Outlook remains unchanged as long as we do not see a significant recovery in trend quality

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week as all three major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average succeeded to gain 4.9% to close at 31,082.56. The S&P 500 finished at 3,752.75 and is up 4.7% for the week. The Nasdaq jumped 5.2% from last Friday’s close to end 10,859.72. It was the best week since June for all three major averages. Finally, all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 29.7. Read More

Bounce Possible, but Still too Early for a Strategic Bargain Hunt!

October16th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Chances for a stronger bounce are accumulating as signs of capitulation are visible
  • Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. averages finished a turbulent week mostly with a negative performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% during the week to close at 29,634.83. The S&P 500, in contrast, was 1.6% lower for the week to close at 3,583.07. The Nasdaq slumped 3.1% from last Friday's close and finished at 10,321.39. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 32. Read More

Sentiment Driven Bounce in Place but Expect Further Selling Pressure!

October 9th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Latest gains can be classified as bounce rather than the beginning of a new and sustainable uptrend
  • The quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s strong declines, U.S. stocks finished the week with gains. Closing at 29,296.79, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2 % for the week. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 1.5% and closed at 3,639.66. The Nasdaq finished at 10,652.41 and eked out a 0.7% gain this week. Most key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 31.3. Read More

Stronger Signs of Capitulation Visible

October 2nd 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Chances for a stronger bounce are accumulating as signs of capitulation are visible
  • Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with sharp losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.9% in five trading days to 28,725.51. The S&P 500 lost 2.9% for the week as well and dropped to 3,585.62. The index closed out its worst month since March 2020. The Nasdaq tumbled 2.7% to close at 10,575.62. For September, the Dow tumbled 8.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%. Quarter to date, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrapped up their first three-quarter losing streak since 2009, losing 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively. The Dow dropped 6.7% in the third quarter and saw a third-straight losing quarter for the first time since 2015. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in the red for the week, dragged by the utilities sector. The energy sector was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended near 31.7. Read More

First signs of capitulation visible!

September 25th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Ingredients for a stronger bounce are accumulating
  • Nevertheless, the quality of the current downtrend still remains quite high
  • The current risk-/reward ratio still looks too low for a strategic bargain hunt

Market Review |

In line with our strategic view, the carnage continued as U.S. stocks finished a brutal week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.0% over the week to 29,590.4. The blue-chip closed below 30,000 for the first time since June 17. The S&P 500 closed at 3,693.23 and posted a 4.7% weekly loss. The Nasdaq plunged 5.1% this week to end at 10,867.93. All three averages capped their fifth negative week in six. All key S&P sectors were negative for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, increased to 29.9. Read More

The S&P 500 has suffered its worst week since June!

September 18th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • In line with our latest call, bounce successfully turned out to be corrective in its nature!
  • No signs for a bottom visible yet, although sentiment is hitting increasingly contrarian levels.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian.

Market Review |

In line with our strategic outlook. U.S. stocks finished the week finally with deep losses. Although the (corrective) bounce continued until Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.1% over the week to 30,822.42. The S&P 500 retreated 4.8% for the week to finish at 3,873.33. The Nasdaq posted a 5.5% loss for the week and finished at 11,448.40. The three major averages suffered their fourth losing week in five, and it was the worst week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since June. Moreover, all the gains from the previous bounce were literally wiped out in a few trading days. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the materials sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 26.2. Read More

Oversold bounce in place but expect renewed selling pressure soon!

September 11th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Further bouncing possible, but upside potential looks increasingly capped.
  • Risk for renewed selling pressure remains high as bounce looks corrective in its nature.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to go for a bargain hunt.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with gains. Closing at 32,151.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.7% for the week. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 3.7% and closed at 4,067.36. The Nasdaq finished at 12,112.31 and jumped 4.1% this week. All three averages snapped a three-week losing streak. All key S&P sectors finished higher, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 22.8. Read More

Market remains vulnerable for further declines!

September 4th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • Most positive divergence have been wiped out.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian.
  • Market is quite oversold and, therefore, the chances for an oversold bounce are accumulating.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3% over the week to 31,318.44. The S&P 500 retreated 3.3% for the week to finish at 3,924.26. The Nasdaq posted a 4.2% loss for the week and finished at 11,630.86. All averages closed out their third straight week of losses. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the technology sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.5. Read More

Tilt between supportive and corrective is quite narrow!

August 28th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Tilt between supportive and corrective is quite narrow
  • Further guidance within our short-term-oriented indicators necessary
  • Time to place a stop-loss at 3,990 (closing basis).

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with heavy losses, which mostly occurred on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.2% over the week to 32,283.40. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 4.0% to close at 4,057.66. The Nasdaq dropped 4.4% for the week to end at 12,141.71. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while the technology sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, increased to 25.6. Read More

No need to panic as the market just took a healthy breather last week

August 21st 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Market took its expected healthy breather last week
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% over the week to 33,706.74. The S&P 500 edged 1.2% lower for the week to finish at 4,228.48. The Nasdaq closed out the week down 2.6% to end at 12,705.22. Among the key S&P sectors, staples were the best weekly performer, while the communication sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 20.6. Read More

FOMO (fear of missing out) started to kick in!

August 14th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • Sentiment could be still a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

In line with our latest call, U.S. stocks continued to rally for another week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.9% from last Friday’s close to 33,761.05. The S&P 500 finished at 4,280.15 and rose 3.3% on the week, notching its longest weekly winning streak since November 2021. The Nasdaq surged 3.1% during the week to 13,047.19. This week’s moves have also extended a market rally off its mid-June lows. The S&P 500 has gained 16.7% since the lows, and has cut its losses from the peak in half. The Dow has gained nearly 13% and the Nasdaq Composite has rebounded 22.6%. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while staples dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 19.5. Read More

Expect further rallying into deeper summer!    

August 7th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week mostly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 32,803.47 and declined 0.1% for the week. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.4% gain over the week to finish at 4,145.19. The Nasdaq advanced 2.2% from last Friday's close to end at 12,657.56. Among the key S&P sectors, technology was the best weekly performer, while the energy sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.2. Read More

Further confirmation for our bullish view!

July 31st 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

In line with our recent call, U.S. stocks rallied for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3% in the past five days to finish at 32,845.13. The S&P 500 added 4.3% over the week to finish at 4,130.29. The Nasdaq jumped 4.7% during the week to 12,390.69. All three major averages also recorded their best month 2022. The Dow rose to a 6.7% gain for July. The S&P 500 added 9.1% for the month. The Nasdaq Composite, while still in bear market territory, is up roughly 12.4%. Those were the biggest monthly gains for all three indexes since 2020. All key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed at 21.3. Read More

Time to build up exposure again?

July 24th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
  • New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
  • Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
  • Time to get back into the market by building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages finished the week with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced nearly 2% for the week to end at 31,899.29. The S&P 500 booked a weekly gain of 2.6%. and finished at 3,961.63. The Nasdaq advanced 3.3% from the week-ago close to 11,834.11. The discretionary sector led gainers among the S&P’s major sectors; health care and utilities were the only negative sectors for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.0. Read More

Ingredients for a bounce are accumulating, but trend quality still looks grim!

July 17th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Sentiment and seasonal factors are supporting a summer relief rally.
  • Nevertheless, the trend quality is neglecting a sustainable recovery at the moment.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to go for a bargain hunt.

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s rally, all the major averages closed out the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than 0.2% over the week to 31,288.26. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 0.9% to finish at 3,863.16. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6% for the week to end at 11,452.42. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the energy sector. Staples was the only weekly gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.2. Read More

Recent gains still look fragile

July 10th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Expected sentiment driven bounce in place.
  • Currently, bounce can still be classified as bear market recovery
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio from a purely strategical point of view.

Market Review |

All three major averages finished up for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8% for the week to close at 31,338.15. The S&P 500 gained 1.9% week to date to finish at 3,899.38. The Nasdaq jumped 4.6% over the week to end at 11,635.31. The Nasdaq has risen in five straight days for the first time this year. Among the key S&P sectors, the discretionary sector was the best weekly performer, while the utilities sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 24.6. Read More

Not surprisingly, the bounce turned out to be corrective in its nature!

July 3rd 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • Sentiment is increasingly hitting contrarian levels.
  • Nevertheless, no significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio still looks too low to act contrarian.

Market Review |

Despite Friday’s gains, all of the major averages posted their fourth down week in five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3% for the week to finish at 31,097.26. The S&P 500 lost 2.2% during the week to end at 3,825.33. The Nasdaq finished at 11,127.85 and plunged 4.1% week to date. The S&P 500 posted a more than 16% quarterly loss – its biggest one-quarter fall since March 2020. For the first half, the broader market index dropped 20.6% for its largest first-half decline since 1970. The 30-stock Dow lost 11.3% in the second quarter, putting it down more than 15% for 2022. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, suffered its biggest quarterly drop since 2008, losing 22.4%. Those losses pushed the tech-heavy composite deep into bear market territory, down nearly 32% from an all-time high set in November. It’s also down 29.5% year to date. Among the key S&P sectors, the utilities sector was the best weekly performer, while the discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a measure of investor uncertainty, traded near 26.7. Read More

Trend quality still too low to bet on a sustainable recovery

June 26th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • No significant recovery in our short-term-oriented indicators visible
  • Latest gains can still be classified as oversold bounce
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian

Market Review |

The market was in bounce mode last week. All three major U.S. averages posted strong weekly gains and snapped three-week losing streaks. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average succeeded to gain 5.4% to close at 31,500.68. The S&P 500 finished at 3,911.74 and is up nearly 6.5% for the week. The Nasdaq jumped 7.5% from last Friday’s close to end at 11,607.62. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Energy was the only weekly loser. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 27.2. Read More

Positive divergences have been wiped out during the week!

June 19th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Most positive divergence have been wiped out.
  • Stay on the sideline as the risk-/reward ratio is too low to act contrarian.
  • Market is quite oversold and, therefore, the chances for an oversold bounce are accumulating.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week with sharp losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 29,888.78 and dropped 4.8% for the week. The blue-chip index suffered its 11th negative week in 12. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,674.84 and lost 5.8% week to date. The Nasdaq fell 4.8% from last Friday's close to end at 10,798.35. All key S&P sectors ended once again in deep negative territory for the week, led by energy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 31.1. Read More

Re-test came along with a lot of positive divergences!

June 12th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • Re-test of the previous low came along with positive divergences.
  • Small chance that latest sell-off was just part of a major bottom building process.
  • Nevertheless it is time to place a stop-loss limit at 3,800 since the risk-reward ratio deteriorated again.

Market Review |

It was a though week as U.S. stocks finished the week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.6% over the week to 31,392.79. The S&P 500 retreated 5.1% for the week to finish at 3,900.86. The Nasdaq posted a 5.6% loss for the week and finished at 11,340.02. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the financial sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 27.8. Read More

No need to get nervous – at least for now!

June 5th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook.
  • Quality of the current short-term-oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • Latest declines were mainly driven by heavy weighted tech stocks rather than being the result of broad-based selling pressure.
  • Sentiment could be a strong catalyst in the current market environment.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost less than 1% over the week to 32,899.70. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.2% to finish at 4,108.54. The Nasdaq dropped 1% percent for the week to end at 12,012.73. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the health care sector. Energy was the best weekly performer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 24.8. Read More

Bear market rally or sustainable recovery?

May 29th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
  • New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
  • Short-term-oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
  • Time to get back into the market buy building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the week with the major averages notching their best weekly performance for months. Closing at 33,212.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 6.2% for the week and snapped its longest losing streak, eight weeks, since 1923. The S&P 500 finished at 4,158.24 and rocketed 6.5% this week. The Nasdaq jumped 6.8% for the week and closed at 12,131.13. Both indexes ended seven-week losing streaks. Still, the averages are well off their highs, with the Nasdaq still solidly in bear market territory and the S&P 500 having briefly dipped more than 20% below its record last week. All key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 25.7. Read More

The Dow Jones booked its longest losing streak since 1923!

May 22nd 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • The negative market regime still looks quite sustainable in its nature.
  • On a very short-time frame, the chances for a stronger oversold bounce are increasing.
  • Stay in cash, as the risk-reward ratio is too low in the current market regime

Market Review |

In line with the our latest Market Regime Outlook, U.S. stocks experienced a roller-coaster week that left the major averages significantly lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 2.9% for the week to finish at 31,261.90. The blue-chip index booked its first eight-week losing streak since 1923. The S&P 500 lost 3.0% in five trading days to end at 3,901.36. The Nasdaq finished at 11,354.62 and plunged 3.8% this week. Both averages posted seven-week losing streaks. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by staples. The energy sector led gainers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – seen by many investors as the best "fear gauge" on Wall Street – traded near 29.4. Read More

The S&P 500 has officially entered a bear market!

May 15th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The negative market regime still looks quite sustainable in its nature.
  • Fridays’ oversold bounce might continue into option expiration.
  • Stay in cash, as the risk-reward ratio is too low in the current market regime.

Market Review |

Despite the 2.4% bounce on Friday, major averages posted major losses for another week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.1% over the week to 32,196.66. The blue-chip average posted its first 7-week losing streak since 2001. The S&P 500 closed at 4,023.89 and posted a 2.4% weekly loss, marking its longest weekly losing streak since 2011. Moreover, with a decline of more than 20 percent from its peak, the broad index has officially entered a bear market. The Nasdaq plunged 2.8% this week to end at 11,805. Nearly all key S&P sectors were negative for the week, staples were the only gainers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 28.9. Read More

Ingredients for a bounce are accumulating but regime outlook remains grim!

May 8th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The negative market regime still looks quite sustainable in its nature.
  • Ingredients for a stronger oversold bounce are accumulating on a fast pace.
  • Stay in cash, as the risk-reward ratio is too low in the current market regime.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks experienced a roller-coaster week. The losses on Friday clinched a losing week for all three major indexes despite starting off the period with three straight positive sessions. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% for its sixth consecutive negative week to finish at 32,899.37. The blue-chip index recorded both its best and worst days since 2020. The S&P 500 dipped 0.2% in five trading days to end at 4,123.34. The Nasdaq lost 1.5% this week and finished at 12,144.66, about 25% below its record high from last November. Both averages booked their fifth straight losing week. Among the key S&P sectors, the energy sector was the best weekly performer, while real estate dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – seen by many investors as the best “fear gauge” on Wall Street – jumped to 30. Read More

S&P 500 is heading down our expected path

May 1st 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The negative market regime still looks quite sustainable in its nature.
  • Chances for a stronger oversold but corrective bounce are again accumulating
  • Stay in cash, as the risk-reward ratio is too low in the current market regime.

Market Review |

The S&P 500 headed down our expected path. After a short-lived bounce at the beginning of the week, U.S. stocks finished the week significantly lower. After tumbling more than 900 points on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week down 2.5% at 32,977.21. The Dow is down 4.9% on the month. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,131.93 and lost 3.3% week to date. For the month, the broad index lost 8.8%, its worst month since March 2020 at the onset of the Covid pandemic. The Nasdaq fell 3.9% from last Friday's close to end at 12,334.64. The tech index fell about 13.3% in April, its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The Nasdaq finished at a new low for 2022 and the S&P 500 did as well, with the main stock benchmark taking out its previous low in March. The S&P 500 is now down 13.3% in 2022. The Nasdaq is off by about 21.2%, and the Dow is nearly 9.3% lower on the year. All key S&P sectors ended in deep negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped to 33.4. Read More

Oversold bounce possible but outlook remains grim!

April 24th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The negative market regime is well backed by outright negative signals
  • Oversold bounce possible but any upcoming gains should turn out to be corrective
  • Stay in cash, as the risk-reward ratio is too low in the current market regime.

Market Review |

As highlighted in our latest call, U.S. stocks finished another week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.9% over the week to 33,811.40. The blue-chip average posted its fourth straight weekly decline and its ninth losing week of the last 11. The S&P 500 closed at 4,271.78 and posted a 2.8% weekly loss, marking its third straight one-week decline. The Nasdaq plunged 3.8% this week to end at 12,839.29. Nearly all key S&P sectors were negative for the week, staples and real estate were the only gainers. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped to 28.2. Read More

Further confirmation for our cautious view!

April 17th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
  • Time to place a stop-loss at 4,450 since the up-trend quality deteriorated significantly

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the holiday-shortened week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8% over the week to 34,451.23. S&P 500 declined 2.1% for the week to finish at 4,392.59. The Nasdaq slumped 2.6% for the week to end at 13,351.08. Among the key S&P sectors, energy and materials were the best weekly performer, while technology dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a measure of investor uncertainty, traded near 22.7. Read More

Make or break in place since expected consolidation is getting a bearish tilt!

April 9th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 is getting increasingly vulnerable for stronger disappointments
  • Time to place a stop-loss at 4,450 since the up-trend quality deteriorated significantly
  • New all-time high in our WSC Sector Rotation Strategy

Market Review |

Markets were in consolidation mode last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3% week-to-date to close at 34,721.12. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.3% to finish at 4,488.28. The Nasdaq inched down about 3.9% on the week and ended at 13,711.00. Despite the week’s small losses, the three major averages are within striking distance of their record highs. Of the S&P sectors, health care led advancers, while the technology sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 21.2. Read More

Sentiment-driven consolidation likely, but no reason to change our bullish view!

April 3rd 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We stick to our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 20th.
  • Quality of the current uptrend continued to improve (even on a mid-term time perspective)
  • On a very short-term time perspective a sentiment-driven consolidation cannot be ruled out.
  • We decided to stop publishing the long-term section in our Weekly Market Timing Forecast since it has no impact on our forecast.

Market Review |

Last week, all three major U.S. averages finished a turbulent week nearly unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% during the week to close at 34,818.27. The S&P 500 managed to eke out a weekly gain of 0.1% to close at 4,545.86. The Nasdaq gained 0.7% for the week to end at 14,261.50. Among the key S&P sectors, real estate was the best weekly performer, while the financial sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 19.6. Read More

Further up-trend confirmation!

March 27th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • No need to change our strategic bullish outlook for the S&P 500 from January 20th.
  • Quality of the current short-term oriented uptrend looks quite high.
  • Sentiment is giving no reason to worry right now.

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished in positive territory with all three major averages notching second consecutive winning weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a weekly increase of 0.3% to finish at 34,861.24. The S&P 500 gained 1.8% for the five days to 4,543.06. The Nasdaq rallied nearly 2% during the week to 14,169.30. Nearly all key S&P sectors ended in positive territory for the week, led by the energy sector. Health care was the only decliner. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded around 20.8. Read More

Risk-/reward ratio is looking attractive again!

March 20th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • We upgrade our strategic outlook from cautious to bullish
  • New uptrend is establishing but expect high volatility
  • Short-term oriented indicators critical to watch within the next couple of days
  • Time to get back into the market buy building up exposure (especially on weak trading days)

Market Review |

U.S. stocks posted strong gains for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.5% week to date to close at 34,754.93. The S&P 500 finished at 4,463.12 and rocketed 6.1% this week. The Nasdaq jumped 8.1% for the week and finished at 13,893.84. Nearly all key S&P sectors succeeded to close in positive territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. Energy was the only loser. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped to 23.9. Read More

S&P 500 dropped to a new low -> Expect further pain down the road!

March 13th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • No fundamental reason to change our cautious strategic outlook from January 16th
  • Sentiment hits extreme negative levels, thus, the risk for oversold bounces are accumulating
  • Stay on the sideline since the current risk-/reward ratio looks too low to justify any kind of bargain hunt at the moment
  • New high in our WSC Inflation Proof Retirement Portfolio

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished another week in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.0% during the week to end at 32,944.19. The blue-chip index posted its fifth consecutive weekly decline. The S&P 500 Index dropped 2.9% from the prior Friday's close to finish at 4,204.31. The Nasdaq tumbled 3.5% during the week to 12,843.81. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq booked their third straight week of losses, their longest slide since December 2018. Nearly all key S&P sectors finished lower, led by staples. The energy sector was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 30.8. Read More

Oversold bounces possible, but no signs of a sustainable bottom visible!

March 6th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • No fundamental reason to change our cautious strategic outlook from January 16th
  • Sentiment hits extreme negative levels, thus, the risk for oversold bounces are accumulating
  • Stay on the sideline since the current risk-/reward ratio looks too low to justify any kind of bargain hunt at the moment
  • New high in our WSC Inflation Proof Retirement Portfolio

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% over the week to 33,614.80. The blue-chip index notched its fourth straight losing week. The S&P 500 booked also a weekly loss of 1.3% to close at 4,328.87. The Nasdaq slumped 2.8% for the week to end at 13,313.44. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while the financial sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, increased to 32. Read More

Broad-based downside participation after S&P 500 dropped to a new low!

February 27th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • No fundamental reason to change our cautious strategic outlook
  • Latest bounce still looks quite corrective in its nature
  • Stay on the sideline since the current risk-/reward ratio looks too low to justify any kind of bargain hunt at the moment

Market Review |

After dropping to new lows, major indexes strongly bounced at the end of the week. In the end, U.S. stocks finished a volatile week with a mixed performance. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% to close at 34,058.7. The blue-chip index posted its third-straight losing week despite the two-day surge, however. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8% in the same time period to finish at 4,384.65. The Nasdaq increased 1.1% to close at 13,694.62. Most key S&P sectors finished higher, led by health care. The discretionary sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded lower, near 27.6. Read More

Expected re-test of the previous low in place!

February 20th 2022 |

Key Takeaways

  • No fundamental reason to change our cautious strategic outlook
  • Stay on the sideline since the current risk-/reward ratio looks too low to justify any kind of bargain hunt at the moment
  • On a very short-time frame, the chances for an oversold but corrective bounce are accumulating

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with strong losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.9% over the week to 34,079.18, whereas it faced its worst trading day in 2022 on Thursday. The S&P 500 recorded a weekly loss of 1.6% to finish at 4,348.87. The Nasdaq lost 1.8% for the week to end at 13,548.07. Most key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by energy. The staples sector was the only gainer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 27.8. Read More

Bounce successfully turned out to be corrective!

February 13th 2022  |

Key Takeaways

  • The trend remains bearish and there is no fundamental reason to change our cautious outlook
  • Further selling pressure towards or even below the previous low at 4,326 looks quite likely
  • Stay on the sideline since the current risk-/reward ratio looks too low to justify any kind of bargain hunt at the moment

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0% over the week to 34,738.06. The S&P 500 suffered a weekly loss of 1.8% to close at 4,418.64. The Nasdaq dropped 2.2% for the week to end at 13,791.15. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while the technology sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 27.4. Read More

Expected bounce looks quite corrective in its nature!

February 6th 2022  |

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages finished the week with gains. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week up 1.1% finishing at 35,089.74. The S&P 500 closed at 4,500.53 and booked a weekly gain of 1.5%. Closing at 14,098.01, the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 2.4% this week. Energy led gainers among the S&P’s 10 major sectors; real estate and comm. services were the only negative sectors for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 23.2. Read More

Ingredients for a bounce are accumulating but outlook remains grim!

January 30th 2022  |

Market Review |

All three major U.S. averages eked out weekly gains after a wild roller-coaster week that saw them experiencing outsized swings each day the week. After dropping to new intra-day lows on Monday and to fresh closing lows on Wednesday, the gains on Friday helped major indexes to close in positive territory for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average succeeded to gain 1.3% for the week to close at 34,725.47. The S&P 500 managed to eke out a weekly gain of 0.8% to finish at 4,431.85. The Nasdaq advanced less than 0.1% for the week to end at 13,770.57. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while the industrial sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 27.7. Read More

Stop-loss triggered as S&P 500 pulled back strongly! More pain ahead!

January 23rd 2022  |

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the shortened week with deep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 4.6% over the week to 34,265.37. The S&P 500 retreated 5.7% for the week to finish at 4,397.94. The Nasdaq posted a 7.6% loss for the week and finished at 13,768.92. Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed out their third straight week of losses and their worst weeks since 2020. All key S&P sectors ended in negative territory for the week, led by the discretionary sector. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, advanced to 28.9. Read More

Narrow tilt between bullish- and bearish biased trading range!

January 16th 2022 |

Market Review |

U.S. stocks wrapped a volatile week that left the major averages mostly unchanged for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9% for the week to close at 35,911.81. The S&P 500 eked out a small weekly loss of 0.3% and finished at 4,662.85. The Nasdaq declined 0.3% over the week to end at 14,893.75. Most key S&P sectors closed lower for the week, dragged by the real estate sector. Energy was the best weekly performer. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, closed below 19.2. Read More

Volatile, but bullish biased trading ahead!

January 9th 2022  |

Market Review |

U.S. stocks finished the week with losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% over the week to 36,231.66. The S&P 500 booked a weekly loss of 1.8% to close at 4,677.03. The Nasdaq dropped 4.5% for the week to end at 14,935.90. Among the key S&P sectors, energy was the best weekly performer, while the real estate sector dragged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 18.8. Read More