The Trend Report gives investors what they need most in today’s markets: clarity, guidance and more predictable outcomes.
Each Sunday, we deliver a structured snapshot of high-impact indicator signals, covering trend strength, trend quality and sentiment, including Dumb and Smart Money positioning. These signals are distilled into our Short- and Mid-Term Market Health Indicators, and further into statistically tested market regimes, each supported by historical hit ratios, providing a high-signal, low-noise view of prevailing trend conditions.
The aim is to capture core moves of sustainable trends. It’s the fastest way to understand what’s really driving markets. Read it regularly and by reviewing our daily updated indicators, you’ll soon be able to anticipate foreseeable market regime shifts – even before they are confirmed by formal signals. The result? More timely, confident and responsive decisions, week after week.
Please note: For more timely – but non-written – updates, review our Short- and Mid-Term Market Health or the Market Regime Gauge in the Dashboard section which are updated daily.
Updated Sundays | Report based on data from 2025-10-03
S&P 500 Short and Long-Term Trends Indicate Favorable Market Conditions
The S&P 500 recorded a one-week return of 1.1 percent. Over the past month, it achieved a return of 4.1 percent. The three-month return stood at 7 percent. Over the course of one year, the S&P 500 experienced a return of 17.8 percent.
Short-Term Market Health
The short-term price trend of the S&P 500 remains positive, as it continues to close above the upper envelope line of the Trend Trader Index. Both envelope lines are rising, indicating higher highs and higher lows on a rolling 20-day basis, which is characteristic of a strong uptrend. Last week, the momentum indicators, such as the Modified MACD and the Advance/Decline 20-Day Momentum Indicator, suggested a weakening pace. However, this week, these indicators confirm a solid, price-driven uptrend, reflecting an improvement in momentum.
The short-term trend quality indicators continue to confirm a healthy upside participation rate within the broad market. The majority of stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average (SMA 20) and 50-day moving average (SMA 50), indicating a positive price trend. Volume flows into equities remain positive, as shown by the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and the Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily now show advancing momentum surpassing declining momentum, a reversal from last week’s weaker signals. The High-/Low Index Daily and the New Highs minus New Lows indicator continue to show more stocks reaching new yearly highs than lows. Overall, the trend quality has improved, reducing the risk of a sustainable trend reversal.
Sentiment indicators show a structural bull-market, with the AAII Bulls & Bears survey indicating a positive outlook. The Smart Money outlook remains positive (WSC Capitulation Index FT). Last week, the option market signaled increased hedging activities, which was positive from a contrarian perspective. This week, however, the Daily Put-/Call Ratio All CBOE Options indicates increased greed, which is a negative signal from a contrarian viewpoint.
Mid-Term Market Health
The mid-term trend for the S&P 500 continues to reflect a healthy environment. The WSC Trend Index remains above its critical 60% threshold, indicating solid demand underpinning the mid-term uptrend. The WSC Mid-Term Price Indicator continues to signal a sustained positive price trend, confirming the bullish setup. This consistent trend suggests that any short-term weakness should remain limited in both price and time.
The quality of the mid-term trend remains robust. The Advance-/Decline Index Weekly shows more advancing issues than declining ones, and the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly indicates strong demand. Most stocks are trading above their 100-day (SMA 100) and 150-day (SMA 150) moving averages, maintaining a positive underlying price trend. The Advance-/Decline Line Daily and Advance-/Decline Volume Line Daily continue to outperform the S&P 500. Despite the Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly showing declining momentum outpacing advancing momentum, the overall mid-term trend quality remains strong, making a trend reversal unlikely.
Bottom Line
The S&P 500 remains in a ‘Very High Reward’ regime across both short- and long-term timeframes, indicating a favorable outlook. Last week, the short-term uptrend was driven by a broad base, with some concerns about momentum. This week, momentum indicators have improved, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend and reducing the risk of a sustainable trend reversal. Pullbacks are expected to be limited in price and time, driven by sentiment rather than fundamental weaknesses. The long-term trend condition remains robust, supporting the positive outlook for the S&P 500.
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Disclaimer
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. WallStreetCourier is not licensed under MiFID II, § 32 KWG, § 34f GewO, or equivalent regulations. By using our services, you agree to receive updates and acknowledge that all information is provided without warranty.
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