The Trend Report gives investors what they need most in today’s markets: clarity, guidance and more predictable outcomes.
Each Sunday, we deliver a structured snapshot of high-impact indicator signals, covering trend strength, trend quality and sentiment, including Dumb and Smart Money positioning. These signals are distilled into our Short- and Mid-Term Market Health Indicators, and further into statistically tested market regimes, each supported by historical hit ratios, providing a high-signal, low-noise view of prevailing trend conditions.
The aim is to capture core moves of sustainable trends. It’s the fastest way to understand what’s really driving markets. Read it regularly and by reviewing our daily updated indicators, you’ll soon be able to anticipate foreseeable market regime shifts – even before they are confirmed by formal signals. The result? More timely, confident and responsive decisions, week after week.
Please note: For more timely – but non-written – updates, review our Short- and Mid-Term Market Health or the Market Regime Gauge in the Dashboard section which are updated daily.
Updated Sundays | Report based on data from 2025-07-03
Consistent Uptrend Signals Strong Market Foundation
The S&P 500 recorded a one-week return of 2.3 percent. Over the past month, the return was 12.8 percent. The three-month return stood at 5.5 percent. Over the past year, the S&P 500 achieved a return of 19.9 percent.
Short-Term Market Health
Currently, the short-term price trend of the S&P 500 is positive, as it has closed above the upper envelope line of the Trend Trader Index. Furthermore, both envelope lines of this short-term trend indicator are rising, signaling higher highs and higher lows on a rolling 20-day basis—a classic pattern of a strong uptrend. Additionally, this bullish trend is confirmed by momentum indicators, including the Modified MACD and the Advance/Decline 20-Day Momentum Indicator. These factors collectively suggest a solid, price-driven uptrend in the current scenario.
This view is also confirmed by our short-term oriented trend quality indicators. We can see that the upside participation rate within the broad market still looks quite healthy. The momentum of advancing stocks is surpassing that of declining ones, as indicated by the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily. Similarly, the momentum of advancing volume is outpacing the declining volume, according to the Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily. Moreover, volume flows into equities are positive, as shown by the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily. Above all, more stocks are reaching new yearly highs compared to those hitting new lows, as reflected in the New Highs minus New Lows indicator. In addition, the 5-day moving average of yearly new highs is exceeding the 5-day moving average of yearly new lows, as highlighted by the High-/Low Index Daily. Furthermore, the majority of stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, signaling a positive price trend over that period. On the other hand, the majority of stocks are also trading above their 50-day moving average, indicating a positive price trend for the broader S&P 500 during this time frame. Given the solid trend quality signals, the risk of a sustainable trend reversal in the S&P 500 should remain low, at least for the time being.
The situation on the sentiment side reveals a mix of signals. The market is overbought according to the (Advance-/Decline Ratio Daily), and thus the pace is likely to slow down a bit. Moreover, the market is overbought as indicated by the (Upside-/Downside Volume Ratio Daily), suggesting a similar deceleration. Furthermore, Smart Money is having a negative outlook for the market at the moment, as shown by the (WSC Capitulation Index FT). On the other hand, the option market, as measured by the (Daily Put-/Call Ratio All CBOE Options), is signaling increased hedging activities among market participants on a short-term time perspective, which is definitely a quite positive fact from a purely contrarian point of view. Additionally, the number of bulls in the (AAII Bulls & Bears survey) is signaling a structural bull-market at the moment.
Mid-Term Market Health
The mid-term-oriented trend in the S&P 500 is still reflecting a very healthy environment. Our reliable WSC Trend Index has closed above its critical 60% threshold, indicating that the mid-term uptrend in the S&P 500 is still underpinned by solid demand. As long as this remains the case, any potential short-term weakness in the S&P 500 should be limited in price and time. Further confirmation of this bullish setup is coming from the WSC Mid-Term Price Indicator, which signals a sustained positive price trend for the time being.
Analyzing the quality of the mid-term-oriented trend reveals a quite robust picture at the moment. The majority of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 100-day moving average, indicating a positive underlying price trend on this timeframe (SMA 100). The Advance-/Decline Volume Line Daily has finished relatively higher compared to the S&P 500, and over the past few weeks, the Advance-/Decline Line Daily has performed better than the underlying market. Moreover, volume in advancing stocks is surpassing that in declining ones (Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly), suggesting robust demand. Furthermore, most stocks are also trading above their 150-day moving average, reinforcing a positive price trend on a 150-day basis (SMA 150). In addition, the number of mid-term advancing issues is exceeding the number of declining ones (Advance-/Decline Index Weekly), reflecting a constructive tape condition. The momentum of mid-term advancing stocks is also outpacing that of mid-term declining ones (Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly), further supporting a favorable market environment. Given the solid readings all across the board, it is definitely way too early to bet on a sustainable trend reversal in the S&P 500.
Bottom Line
The S&P 500 performed in line with its current short-term regime. The S&P 500 is currently in a ‘Very High Reward’ regime across both short- and long-term timeframes, signaling an exceptionally favorable outlook for the time being. The short-term uptrend is driven by a broad base, and thus, the risk of a sustainable trend reversal should remain outright low. Pullbacks based on negative news flow should be limited in price and time, as they are simply the result of sentiment-driven reactions rather than fundamental weaknesses. Looking at the long-term regime, the trend condition remains equally strong, supporting the outright positive outlook for the time being.
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Disclaimer
WallStreetCourier provides rule-based, quantitative market research for educational and informational purposes only. The content does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or personalized financial recommendations. It is not tailored to individual needs and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions without consulting a licensed advisor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. WallStreetCourier is not licensed under MiFID II, § 32 KWG, § 34f GewO, or equivalent regulations. By using our services, you agree to receive updates and acknowledge that all information is provided without warranty.
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