We believe that financial markets are not random. Over time, they move in trends shaped by the interaction of supply, demand, and investor behavior. When these trends are identified correctly and respected consistently, they offer a durable foundation for superior returns.
This belief is not ideological. It is grounded in decades of extensive academic research and reinforced by real-world results showing that alignment with the dominant trend remains one of the most persistent and effective investment approaches across market cycles. The success of long-standing trend-following strategies highlights a central truth of markets: sustainable returns are not achieved by predicting the future, but by quickly aligning with prevailing market realities. Profits are allowed to run when trends persist, while losses are managed decisively when conditions change.
For this reason, our philosophical starting point is not prediction, but assessment. We focus on understanding the market’s current state rather than forecasting where it “should” go. Markets are viewed through a regime lens, where conditions evolve gradually and risk typically builds internally before it becomes visible in price.
This philosophy does not aim to forecast markets. While major turning points can only be correctly identified with hindsight, disciplined alignment with market conditions can be achieved in near real time. The objective is not to anticipate every move, but to remain positioned in harmony with dominant trends and to recognize early when the underlying structure begins to weaken.
In essence, our philosophy is rooted in discipline over conviction, structure over narrative and risk management over prediction. It provides the intellectual foundation for a research process designed to remain objective, stable and actionable across a wide range of market environments.
We do not forecast markets. We assess market conditions.
Our research is built on the idea that risk and opportunity emerge from how trends, participation, and sentiment interact across market cycles to form distinct market regimes. Market regimes are recurring trend conditions over time.
By focusing on trend structure rather than narratives, we aim to stay aligned with the dominant regime and adapt early as conditions change.
The Eurekahedge Trend Following Index is a benchmark that tracks the performance of hedge funds employing systematic trend-following strategies across various asset classes.
Our research methodology translates this philosophy into a structured, systematic and transparent process designed to identify and classify market environments in a consistent and objective manner. The goal is not to forecast outcomes, but to assess how favorable or unfavorable the current market regime is from a risk–reward perspective.
Signals from trend, trend quality, and sentiment are then aggregated by timeframe into Market Health Indicators. This aggregation is performed across short-, mid-, and long-term horizons to reduce noise and ensure that conclusions are based on a broad and balanced set of evidence. Market Health reflects the underlying strength or weakness of the prevailing trend rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Based on the combined Market Health readings, markets are classified into six predefined market regimes, ranging from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. These regimes describe the prevailing balance between risk and opportunity and capture how market conditions typically evolve across the full market cycle. Each regime is associated with characteristic trend behavior and clear investment implications, such as maintaining exposure, becoming more selective, reducing risk, or stepping aside.
Importantly, this methodology is applied consistently across all markets. The same process, indicators, and regime definitions are used globally, allowing for meaningful comparisons across regions and market cycles. This consistency helps ensure that changes in regime reflect genuine shifts in market structure rather than subjective interpretation.
In summary, the research methodology provides a disciplined framework for assessing markets as they are, not as they are expected to be. By combining trend, participation, and sentiment into a coherent regime framework, it enables investors to align exposure with prevailing market conditions, manage risk proactively, and respond to change without relying on forecasts or narratives.
This approach is designed for investors who prioritize risk-adjusted decision-making, regime awareness, and structural market insight. By focusing on market internals rather than headlines, it helps investors remain aligned with dominant market regimes, manage drawdowns more effectively, and avoid common behavioral pitfalls.
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FREE MARKET RESEARCH
Only This Weekend!
10 Jan. 12:00 PM – 13 Jan. 12:00 PM (CET)
No Credit Card Needed
This weekend, all our free members with a Basic plan will have full access to premium content.
