In-Depth Regime Analysis & Actionable Outlook

The main purpose of our weekly research is to give an actionable outlook on the S&P 500 based on the current market regime. By reviewing all indicators used by the Big Picture Indicator, we evaluate the strength and the sustainability of the current market regime on a weekly basis. This structured in-depth analysis of all indicators – grouped by type and time frame – determines the precise location of the S&P 500 in the current regime. As a result, it red-flags trend breaks and predictable regime changes before common indicators do. Especially regime switches have proven to be very successful in calling major inflection points in stocks and risky assets. At the end of each report, we give an actionable regime-based outlook according to the readings of our market indicators.

Our outlook is helping members to capitalize on sustained regimes and shifts and to avoid buying stocks and other risky assets (such as futures, options,  junk bonds, …) during unfavorable market conditions. Moreover, our outlook is supporting active investors in adapting their investment approach to the current market regime (e.g. using leverage or leveraged products only during favorable market regimes while avoiding buying the dips during unfavorable market regimes…). Besides, our report is supporting members in seeing opportunities while financial headlines rage.

Actionable Outlook to Maximize Return Opportunities & Minimize Losses

Avoiding larger losses and taking more risk during favorable market regimes ensures that the most powerful force in the universe, also known as compound interest (Albert Einstein), will work in your favor. Below you can see some examples of identified positive and negative market regimes and why avoiding losses matters!

Some Examples of our Market Regime Outlook

Don’t fight the trend! Don’t fight the tape!

In line with our latest call, the market continued to push higher last week. Consequently, it is not a big surprise that the short-term oriented uptrend of the market remains in force. To be more precise, the S&P 500 is now trading 88 points above the bearish threshold from the Trend Trader Index. This is telling us that the pure price driven short-term oriented up-trend of the market remains intact as long as the S&P 500 does not drop below 3,117. Furthermore, we can see that both envelope lines of this reliable indicator showed stronger signs of positive momentum last ...
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No need to get nervous as market is taking a healthy breather

Although the market finished in negative territory for the week, the short-term oriented trend of the market remains intact. The S&P 500 is still trading 43 points above the bearish threshold from the Trend Trader Index. Consequently, the pure short-term oriented price trend of the market remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 does not close below 3,725 (lower threshold from the Trend Trader Index). Also, from a pure structural point of view, the short-term oriented trend of the market has not turned bearish yet as both envelope lines of the Trend Trader Index are still increasing. As a ...
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Positive price and tape momentum is giving no reason to worry right now

After a short but hefty wash-out day on Monday, the market continued to push higher last week. More importantly, this advance was strongly confirmed by our entire short-term oriented indicators (which got back on track or even strengthened their bullish signals last week). If we analyze the pure price driven trend, we can see that the S&P 500 is now trading 131 points above the bearish threshold from the Trend Trader Index (after turning slightly neutral on Monday). Consequently, this pure price driven uptrend of the market remains intact as long as the S&P 500 keeps trading above 3,693. Given ...
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Record high in place but healthy breather likely as tape is losing steam

From a pure price point of view, the short-term trend of the market remains intact as the S&P 500 closed 76 points above the bearish threshold from the Trend Trader Index. Consequently, this pure price driven uptrend of the market remains intact as long as the S&P 500 keeps trading above 3,680. Given the fact that we have seen higher highs and higher lows for the past 20 days, both envelope lines of this reliable indicator are still drifting higher. Hence, the resistance/support levels for the S&P 500 are increasing as well, which is another quite constructive price trend signal ...
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Learn From Experts

By reading our Weekly Market Regime Outlook on a regular basis, you will soon be able to identify regime-based trading opportunities by yourself. Besides showing that you fully understand the basic principles of our successful regime-based investing, it also enables you to become a self-sufficient and successful investor. As the S&P 500 sets the direction for other risky assets, our Weekly Market Regime Outlook is also highly recommended to non-U.S. equity focused investors.