Market regimes are a predefined classification of trends based on their direction and strength
Positive Short-Term Market Health & Negative Mid-Term Market Health >>> Increasing Reward
Characteristics
Establishing uptrend. Positive biased market regime, characterized by high volatility. Prices show stronger signs of stabilization after an extended period of extreme negative trading days. The negative trend weakens as the broad market is getting back on track. This transition is causing increased volatility. Sentiment is typically fearful, leaving the market better positioned to react strongly to positive news flow. Given the fact that the longer-term oriented trend picture is still quite damaged, the recovery remains at risk of fading at some point in time. Thus, differentiating whether these gains mark the beginning of a new sustainable uptrend or are just the result of an oversold bounce remains a challenge in that regime. Please note that the Market Regime Gauge provides only a snapshot of current indicator signals and does not account for foreseeable signal shifts, divergences, or weak signal strength. For a more detailed view, we recommend monitoring our Short- to Long-Term Market Health Indicators and/or single indicator devlopments.
Behind Market Regimes:
Market regimes are a predefined classification of trends based on their direction and strength.
Our definition of market regimes is rooted in an extensive analysis and combination of multiple indicators across various categories (trend, trend quality, and sentiment, including dumb- and smart-money positioning) and timeframes.
In total, we have six predefined regimes ranging from ‘Very High Reward’ to ‘Very High Risk,’ each with its own distinct risk-reward characteristics.
A written assessment of relevant market indicators used to identify the Short- and Long-Term Market Regime of the S&P 500
Updated Sundays | Report based on data from 2025-04-17
S&P 500 Vulnerability Remains High Amid Negative Trend
In the past week, the S&P 500 experienced a 0.3% increase. Over the last month, it decreased by 6.9%. Looking back over the past three months, the S&P 500 declined by 11.9%. However, over the course of the last year, it saw a 5.2% increase.
Short-Term Market Health
The short-term trend of the S&P 500 is decisively negative, with the index closing below the lower envelope line of the Trend Trader Index. This downward movement is reinforced by both envelope lines declining, signaling lower highs and lower lows over a rolling 20-day period— a typical pattern of a pronounced negative price trend. Additionally, this bearish direction is supported by strong momentum indicators, including the Modified MACD and the Advance/Decline 20-Day Momentum Indicator. Consequently, the current negative price trend seems to be quite robust.
This view is strongly confirmed by the fact that the quality of this (down) trend looks quite robust at the moment. There, we can see that the downside participation rate within the broad market still looks quite high. Thus, most of the downtrend is being driven by the broad market, rather than being the result of a few heavily weighted stocks in the market. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily indicates that declining stocks are gaining momentum over advancing ones. Similarly, the Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily shows that declining volume is surpassing advancing volume momentum. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily reflects negative volume flows into equities. The High-/Low Index Daily reveals that the 5-day moving average of yearly new lows is exceeding the 5-day moving average of yearly new highs. Moreover, a significant portion of stocks are trading below their 20-day moving average (SMA 20), signaling a negative price trend. Additionally, a majority of stocks are below their 50-day moving average (SMA 50), indicating a negative price trend for the broad market. Lastly, there are more stocks hitting new yearly highs than those dropping to new yearly lows, as shown by the New Highs minus New Lows indicator. All these facts are telling us that the underlying tape structure of the S&P 500 looks quite damaged at the moment and, therefore, it is a bit too early to bet on a sustainable counter-trend rally.
On the contrarian side, we can see that the more…
The Weekly Trend Report provides a thorough written assessment of relevant market indicators used to identify the Short- and Long-Term Market Regime of the underlying market.
Each report follows a structured decision-making process, offering clear step-by-step instructions and complete transparency on how market regimes are identified. The Short-Term Market Regime (for short-term traders) is constructed upon the combination of Short- to Mid-term Market Health, while the Long-Term Market Regime (for buy & hold oriented investors) is based on the combination of Mid- to Long-Term Market Health.
By regularly following our Weekly Trend Report, you’ll soon be able to interpret market trends and potential shifts based on our indicators with confidence.
To determine the market regime, we use dozens of indicator signals covering essential performance factors such as trend, trend quality, sentiment, and the positions of smart and dumb money.
Gauging trends through a systematic screening of signals from multiple indicators
The Indicator Dashboard provides a single, color-coded chart that displays the underlying signals from our individual market indicators for the Market for the past weeks. The signals are organized by category and ranked by timeframe, making it easy to visually analyze market health conditions. Mouse over for more details.
The Flowchart shows key components utilized to identify current market regimes for the Market. Mouse over for detailed insights.
Trends are measured through a systematic screening of signals from multiple indicators.
Organized by type and timeframe, our indicators capture essential performance factors such as trend, trend quality (breadth), and sentiment (smart and dumb money positioning), enabling us to identify strong trending markets effectively.
This diversified approach minimizes the impact of noise in individual indicators and provides an unbiased and robust view of current market conditions.
For a deeper analysis, you can screen these single indicators on our Market Regime Indicators section.
Measuring signal positivity among trend, trend quality, and sentiment indicators across three different timeframes
The spider chart measures and aggregates signal positivity among our trend, trend quality and sentiment indicators across three different timeframes. Scores on a 0 to 100% scale represent signal positivity. Mouse over for more details.
The spider chart measures and aggregates signal positivity across three different timeframes. Scores on a 0 to 100% scale represent signal positivity. Mouse over for more details.
Determining Market Health:
Market Health Indicators measure signal positivity among all published trend, trend quality, and sentiment indicators across three different timeframes.
This diversified approach minimizes the limitations of individual indicators and provides an unbiased view of financial markets
Scores on a 0 to 100% scale denote signal positivity.
Values below 50% indicate a negative outlook, while those above 50% signal positive market health.
The chart illustrates the Market Health for the Market over time and per timeframe. The first panel shows the Market, followed by three subsequent panels detailing Short-, Mid-, and Long-Term Market Health. Mouse over for more details.
The chart illustrates the Market Health for the Market over time and per timeframe. The first panel shows the Market, followed by three subsequent panels detailing Short-, Mid-, and Long-Term Market Health. Mouse over for more details.
The Process Beyond Market Health Analysis
Market Health Indicators offer comprehensive insights into the market condition, integrating signals from trend, trend quality, and sentiment indicators. Scores ranging from 0 to 100% represent the overall positivity of signals within a specific timeframe.
Scores below 50% indicate a negative outlook, indicating potential market weaknesses. On the other hand, scores above 50% indicate positive market health, signaling favorable conditions.
By combining short- to mid-term and mid-term to long-term market health readings, the specific market regime is determined. The Short-Term Market Regime is built upon the combination of short- to mid-term market health, while the Long-Term Market Regime is based on the combination of mid- to long-term market health.
Below, you can observe the evolution of both short-term and long-term market regimes over the past 15 trading days.
Our curated selection of well-researched, highly reliable indicators analyze key performance drivers such as trend, trend quality (breadth), sentiment, and the positions of smart vs. dumb money.
In this section, we will provide you with detailed information about the signals of Trend Indicators, utilized to identify the direction of the market.
In addition to the indicators displayed, we also offer the following tools to help identify the trend direction:
In this section, we will provide detailed information about Trend Quality Indicators, which are used to identify the strength of the trend.
In addition to the indicators displayed, we also offer the following tools to help identify the trend quality:
In this section, we will provide you with detailed information about the signals of Sentiment Indicators, utilized to identify the greed and fear among market participants.
In addition to the indicators displayed, we also offer the following tools to help identify the greed and fear:
Want to know how this market regime analysis is specifically applied to the Market? Below, you’ll find our Market Regime Newsletters where we apply our market regime analysis specifically tailored to this market.
Our Market Regime Newsletter provides a brief glimpse into our evidence-based research methodology, showcasing how our indicators and tools can effectively identify compelling investment opportunities and risk factors. With a consistent top-down research approach, the newsletter offers valuable insights into our market research methodology.
In addition to the analysis for the Market, our services and tools also provide detailed trend analysis for 25 other markets.
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