Dax · DAX · Europe
The daily data-driven DAX analysis: where the DAX stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1995.
Very High Reward Regime Persists, Stability Remains Strong
The Dax advanced 0.8% on Friday, closing at 26,570. Gains were supported by strong internal participation, with 71.8% of constituents rising and 77.9% of volume concentrated in advancing stocks. Notably, 15.4% of index members registered new 52-week highs, while no stocks hit new 52-week lows, underscoring robust breadth during the session.
Full Access. No Delay.
Basic members get free daily access to one selected market. Premium members get daily access to all 29 markets, including the DAX.
Start free · No credit card required
A compact analysis of the DAX indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain robust, with the Trend Trader Index showing the market trading above its upper envelope, reflecting a sustained bullish bias. Both envelope lines of the Trend Trader Index are rising, confirming the structural integrity of the short-term uptrend. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum continues to signal positive breadth, as advancing issues outpace decliners. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index highlights broad-based participation, with a significant proportion of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. The market also remains above its 50-day moving average, and the EMA 50 Line is rising, further reinforcing the positive short-term price structure. However, the Modified MACD continues to indicate negative momentum, suggesting some underlying caution despite the prevailing uptrend.
TREND QUALITY improved notably, advancing to 83.33 from 66.67, as more short-term participation metrics turned supportive. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA both indicate that a majority of constituents are trading above their respective moving averages, underscoring the breadth of the rally. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily remains positive, reflecting healthy volume flows into equities. The Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily turned bullish versus the previous observation, with advancing volume now outpacing declining volume. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily continues to show more stocks reaching new yearly highs than lows, further validating the quality of the current trend. However, the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily still points to some caution, as declining stocks are outpacing advancers on a daily basis.
SENTIMENT remains firmly positive, holding at 100.00, with realized volatility (10d) trading below its 25th percentile, which is typically interpreted as a constructive signal for risk assets. The CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily remains neutral, indicating no significant shift in options market positioning. The 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days metric is also neutral, suggesting the absence of extreme institutional buying or selling. Both the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 and below 30 are neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions are prevalent. Overall, the sentiment backdrop continues to support the prevailing short-term bullish structure.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain at their strongest possible readings, with the WSC Trend Index confirming a broad-based advance as a high percentage of stocks trade above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend continues to signal a bullish trajectory, and the market remains firmly above its 100-day moving average. The EMA 100 Line is rising, reinforcing the durability of the mid-term uptrend. There has been no deterioration in these core trend signals versus the previous observation, and the underlying price structure remains robust.
TREND QUALITY is unchanged at its maximum, with the Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both indicating that the majority of index constituents are participating in the uptrend. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly continues to show that advancing stocks are outpacing decliners, while the Advance-/Decline Index Weekly confirms a constructive tape with more mid-term advancers than decliners. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly remains positive, highlighting healthy demand for equities. These indicators collectively reinforce the quality and breadth of the mid-term rally.
SENTIMENT remains negative at 40.00, unchanged from the previous observation, as several cautionary signals persist. The Smart Money Flow Index continues to show a lack of confirmation from smart money, and the WSC Capitulation Index FT maintains a negative outlook. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey reflects elevated fear among individual investors, with a higher proportion of bears. However, the WSC Capitulation Index itself remains positive, and realized volatility (20d) is still below its 25th percentile, which is supportive. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and do not materially influence the overall assessment.
Dax is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently strong Long-Term Market Health. The current regime reflects a Very High Reward, Risk-On phase, underpinned by elevated Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health. This environment has historically been associated with constructive conditions and a supportive backdrop for risk assets.
Historically, since 1995 and across 349 samples, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +44.5% with a Sharpe of 3.09, roughly three times the buy-and-hold baseline of +14.3%, at meaningfully lower volatility. Average maximum drawdown stands at -1.37%, and the up-day rate is 57.8%.
Historische Rendite des DAX je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1995 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 63.3% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 52.0% | 349 | 44.5% | 57.8% | 0.7% | -0.6% | 14.4% | 3.09 |
| High Reward | 5.1% | 139 | 44.3% | 56.8% | 0.9% | -0.8% | 18.2% | 2.43 |
| Increasing Reward | 6.2% | 96 | 67.6% | 57.1% | 1.3% | -1.2% | 27.0% | 2.50 |
| Risk-Off · 36.7% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 15.4% | 359 | -22.6% | 49.1% | 0.9% | -1.0% | 19.4% | -1.16 |
| High Risk | 7.3% | 233 | -7.8% | 51.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% | 23.1% | -0.34 |
| Very High Risk | 13.9% | 156 | -44.8% | 45.6% | 1.6% | -1.7% | 37.1% | -1.21 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 14.3% | 54.5% | 0.9% | -0.9% | 21.4% | 0.67 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1995. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes in similar phases have been mixed, with positive and negative returns occurring with roughly equal frequency over the next day to one month. The current readings in Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health suggest that while the regime is highly constructive, the near-term pattern does not show a clear directional bias. Historically, this has translated into a balanced set of outcomes over the immediate horizon.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health situates the regime as very stable, with a 93.9% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 93.9%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored maintaining exposure rather than aggressively increasing or reducing positions. Participation has generally been rewarded, but the absence of a strong short-term directional signal supports a measured approach. The bias has leaned toward ongoing engagement with a focus on disciplined risk management.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the DAX every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the DAX Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the DAX has performed in comparable conditions since 1995. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the DAX is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the DAX has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1995. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the DAX was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1995, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the DAX on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1995. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the DAX is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently over three decades. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1995, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You are currently viewing a placeholder content from X. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
More Information