Dax · DAX · Europe
The daily data-driven DAX analysis: where the DAX stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1995.
Very High Reward Regime Holds, Short-Term Stability Remains Elevated
The Dax rose 0.6% on Wednesday, closing at 25,155.4 after trading between 24,984.3 and 25,271.3. Internal participation was robust, with 74.4% of constituents advancing and 70.7% of volume concentrated in rising stocks. New 52-week highs were recorded by 5.1% of the index, while 2.6% marked new lows, indicating a positive breadth backdrop for the session.
Full Access. No Delay.
Basic members get free daily access to one selected market. Premium members get daily access to all 29 markets, including the DAX.
Start free · No credit card required
A compact analysis of the DAX indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain constructive, with the Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum confirming that advancing stocks continue to outpace decliners over the past month. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index highlights a broad-based rally, as a significant proportion of index constituents are trading above their 26-week highs. The market also closed above its 50-day moving average, and the EMA 50 Line is rising, both reinforcing the positive price structure. However, the Trend Trader Index Lines show both envelope lines declining, suggesting some underlying structural weakness, while the Modified MACD continues to signal negative momentum. The Trend Trader Index itself remains neutral, offering little directional insight. Overall, the short-term TREND picture is positive but not without pockets of caution.
TREND QUALITY advanced sharply to its maximum reading, moving from a moderate 50.00 to 100.00. This improvement is underpinned by a broadening participation in the rally, as evidenced by the Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA, both of which turned bullish versus the previous session. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily confirms that volume flows are favoring advancing stocks, while the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily both turned bullish, indicating that momentum in advancing stocks and volume is outpacing that of decliners. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily also turned bullish, with more stocks reaching new yearly highs. These developments collectively point to a robust and improving short-term TREND QUALITY.
SENTIMENT remains firmly positive, with the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily turning bullish and signaling increased short-term fear among market participants, a contrarian positive. Realized Volatility in % (10d) is subdued, trading below its 25th percentile, which is typically supportive for equities. Other sentiment gauges, such as the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days and the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 or below 30, remain neutral and did not materially influence the overall assessment. The combination of positive option market signals and low realized volatility continues to underpin a favorable short-term SENTIMENT backdrop.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain strong, with the WSC Trend Index turning bullish and highlighting a broad-based advance as more stocks trade above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend continues to signal a bullish market, and the index remains above its 100-day moving average, with the EMA 100 Line still rising. These signals collectively reinforce the positive mid-term price structure, with no deterioration versus the previous observation.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term remains at its maximum, unchanged from the prior session, as participation and momentum measures continue to support the prevailing uptrend. The Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both confirm that the majority of constituents are trading above their respective moving averages, underpinning the strength of the rally. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly turned bullish, indicating that advancing stocks are gaining momentum over decliners. The Advance-/Decline Index Weekly and Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly both confirm a constructive tape, with advancing issues and volume outpacing decliners. These factors collectively sustain a high-quality mid-term TREND.
SENTIMENT remains positive in the mid-term, with Realized Volatility in % (20d) continuing to trade below its 25th percentile, a supportive backdrop for risk assets. The Smart Money Flow Index confirms that institutional flows are aligned with current market levels, while the WSC Capitulation Index FT signals a positive outlook from smart money. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey turned bullish, indicating a structural bull-market bias among individual investors. However, the Hindenburg Omen remains a source of caution, flagging increased downside risk within a 30-day window, and the WSC Capitulation Index highlights negative momentum in smart money flows. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio, remain neutral.
Dax is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Very High Reward, the most constructive of the six regime tiers, with both Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health holding at notably strong levels. This backdrop reflects a sustained period of positive structural and tactical conditions.
Historically, since 1995 and across 350 samples, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +45.1% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.13, roughly three times the buy-and-hold baseline of +14.2%, at meaningfully lower volatility. Average maximum drawdown has been -1.4%, with an up-day rate of 57.9%.
Historische Rendite des DAX je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1995 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 63.2% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 51.9% | 350 | 45.1% | 57.9% | 0.7% | -0.6% | 14.4% | 3.13 |
| High Reward | 5.2% | 140 | 45.3% | 56.2% | 0.9% | -0.8% | 17.9% | 2.52 |
| Increasing Reward | 6.1% | 91 | 64.6% | 57.1% | 1.3% | -1.2% | 27.2% | 2.37 |
| Risk-Off · 36.8% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 15.6% | 357 | -22.4% | 49.1% | 0.9% | -1.0% | 19.4% | -1.16 |
| High Risk | 7.4% | 235 | -16.0% | 50.1% | 1.0% | -1.1% | 23.2% | -0.69 |
| Very High Risk | 13.8% | 158 | -44.0% | 45.7% | 1.6% | -1.7% | 37.3% | -1.18 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 14.2% | 54.5% | 0.9% | -0.9% | 21.4% | 0.66 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1995. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been mixed in similar phases, with neither positive nor negative moves dominating over the next day or week. However, the combination of current Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health scores has tended to support a constructive bias over the one-month horizon, with positive outcomes occurring more frequently than negative ones at that interval.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health situates the regime as extremely stable, with a 100.0% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 100.0%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored maintaining or incrementally increasing exposure, as the combination of strong structural and tactical signals has generally rewarded ongoing participation. The bias has leaned toward allowing existing positions to run, rather than reducing risk or rotating defensively.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the DAX every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the DAX Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the DAX has performed in comparable conditions since 1995. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the DAX is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the DAX has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1995. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the DAX was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1995, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the DAX on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1995. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the DAX is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently over three decades. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1995, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You are currently viewing a placeholder content from X. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
More Information