S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
High Reward Regime Holds, Short-Term Stability Extremely High
The S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Friday, closing at 7580.1 after trading between 7527.6 and 7637.5. Market breadth was negative, with 53.2% of constituents declining and 65.5% of volume concentrated in decliners, while only 6.5% of stocks reached new 52-week highs and 0.6% marked new lows.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators deteriorated notably versus the previous observation, with the Trend Trader Index signaling a bearish shift as the market closed below the lower envelope line based on the 20-day rolling low. Both envelope lines of the Trend Trader Index are now declining, reflecting structural damage in the short-term price trend and marking a bearish turn from the prior session. The Modified MACD confirms negative momentum, while the market's close below its 50-day moving average further underscores the loss of short-term trend support. Despite these negatives, the Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum remains positive, and the WSC Short-Term Trend Index continues to show broad-based strength, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs remains elevated. The EMA 50 Line is still rising, but the overall short-term trend profile has weakened considerably since the previous report.
TREND QUALITY remains constructive, though it has eased from its prior peak. The majority of stocks are trading above both their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating broad participation in the short-term trend. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily both show advancing stocks and volume outpacing decliners, supporting the underlying trend structure. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily continues to reflect more stocks reaching new yearly highs than lows. However, the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily turned bearish, highlighting a shift in short-term volume flows that tempers the overall quality of the trend. Despite this, the breadth and momentum measures remain supportive, though less robust than previously.
SENTIMENT improved sharply, with the Sentiment Score surging to its maximum reading. Realized Volatility in % (10d) turned bullish, now trading below its 25th percentile over the past 10 days, which is typically interpreted as a positive risk environment. The CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily shifted to neutral, while other sentiment gauges such as the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days and the percentage of stocks with RSI(14) above 70 or below 30 remained neutral, not materially influencing the overall assessment. The improvement in realized volatility and the absence of extreme overbought or oversold conditions suggest a more constructive short-term sentiment backdrop compared to the previous observation.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain supportive, though they have moderated from their previous strength. The WSC Trend Index continues to show a broad-based price trend, with a healthy percentage of stocks trading above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend remains bullish, and the EMA 100 Line is still rising, confirming the persistence of the upward trend. However, the market closed below its 100-day moving average, which marks a bearish shift versus the previous observation and introduces a note of caution to the mid-term trend outlook.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term remains subdued, unchanged from the prior reading. While the majority of stocks are trading above their 100-day and 150-day moving averages, indicating broad participation in the underlying trend, several breadth and momentum indicators have weakened. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both show declining stocks outpacing advancers, and the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly indicates that volume in declining stocks is outpacing that in advancing ones. These developments point to a vulnerable tape condition and weak demand, which continue to weigh on the overall quality of the mid-term trend.
SENTIMENT remains negative in the mid-term, with little change from the previous observation. The WSC Capitulation Index is positive, suggesting some support from smart money flows, but this is offset by a negative outlook from the WSC Capitulation Index FT and a lack of confirmation from the Smart Money Flow Index. The recent triggering of a Hindenburg Omen highlights increased downside risks within a 30-day timeframe, reflecting weak market breadth. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey continues to signal elevated fear among individual investors. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and realized volatility, remain neutral and do not materially influence the overall assessment.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as High Reward and Risk-On, reflecting a constructive tactical environment. Short-Term Market Health remains strong, while Mid-Term Market Health is notably weaker, resulting in mixed levels across the tactical horizon.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +34.6% with a Sharpe of 2.12, roughly three times the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.5%, at broadly similar volatility. The average maximum drawdown stands at -0.5%, with an up-day rate of 54.7%, based on a sample of 138 episodes.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.7% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.8% | 395 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 138 | 34.6% | 54.7% | 0.8% | -0.6% | 16.4% | 2.12 |
| Increasing Reward | 4.0% | 99 | 37.8% | 55.5% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.8% | 1.66 |
| Risk-Off · 29.3% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.8% | 390 | -16.9% | 49.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.06 |
| High Risk | 4.6% | 196 | -12.6% | 48.8% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 16.9% | -0.74 |
| Very High Risk | 9.8% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.5% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.2% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been mixed under these conditions, with neither positive nor negative returns dominating over the next day to one month. This outlook is shaped by the divergence between robust Short-Term Market Health and softer Mid-Term Market Health, which has tended to limit the frequency of sustained upside in comparable phases.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in an extremely stable state, with a 97.87% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (High Reward 61.7%, Very High Reward 34.0%, Increasing Reward 2.1%).
The historical pattern has favored maintaining exposure rather than aggressively increasing risk. The bias has leaned toward ongoing participation, with a measured approach to position sizing in light of the mixed short-term signals.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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