S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Very High Reward Regime Persists, Risk-On Run Far Exceeds Norm
The S&P 500 finished unchanged on Friday, closing at 7412.0 after trading within a narrow intraday range. Despite the flat index performance, internal participation was robust, with 73.6% of constituents advancing and 6.5% reaching new 52-week highs, while only 1.2% marked new 52-week lows. Advancing stocks also accounted for 57.5% of total volume, indicating broad-based support across the index.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain constructive, with the Trend Trader Index Lines showing both envelope lines rising, underscoring the resilience of the prevailing price trend. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum continues to reflect a positive bias, as advancing issues outpace decliners over the past month. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index signals broad-based participation, with a healthy proportion of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. The EMA 50 Line is still rising, confirming upward momentum in the 50-day moving average. However, the Trend Trader Index itself highlights a more cautious note, as the market is trading below the lower envelope line based on the 20-day rolling low, suggesting some short-term vulnerability. The Modified MACD remains negative, indicating that short-term momentum has yet to recover, and the market closed below its 50-day moving average, reinforcing the need for vigilance.
TREND QUALITY improved meaningfully, advancing from a previously weaker reading. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA turned bullish versus the prior session, with a majority now trading above this key short-term average, signaling renewed breadth in the rally. The Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day MA also turned bullish, confirming that the positive price trend is broadening across the index. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily continues to show more stocks reaching new yearly highs than lows, further supporting the underlying structure. However, the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily remains negative, indicating that volume flows are not yet confirming the price action. Both the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and the Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily highlight that declining momentum and volume are outpacing advances, tempering the overall improvement in TREND QUALITY.
SENTIMENT moderated, with the Sentiment Score retreating from its previous elevated level. The CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily remains neutral, suggesting a balanced options market without clear directional conviction. Realized Volatility in % (10d) shifted to neutral, indicating that short-term volatility is neither excessively high nor low. The 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days indicator remains neutral, reflecting a lack of extreme institutional buying or selling. Both the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 and below 30 are neutral, pointing to an absence of widespread overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, SENTIMENT has normalized, with no clear risk-on or risk-off tilt emerging from the current readings.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain robust, with the WSC Trend Index confirming that a significant proportion of stocks are trading above their 52-week highs, reflecting broad-based strength. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend continues to signal a bullish environment, and the market remains firmly above its 100-day moving average, as confirmed by the Price above 100 EMA and the rising EMA 100 Line. These readings collectively underscore the persistence of the mid-term uptrend, with no deterioration observed versus the previous observation.
TREND QUALITY remains strong, supported by a majority of stocks trading above both their 100-day and 150-day moving averages, indicating healthy participation in the mid-term rally. The Advance-/Decline Index Weekly continues to show advancing issues outpacing decliners, and the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly turned bullish versus the previous session, highlighting renewed demand for equities. However, the Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly turned bearish, signaling that the momentum of declining stocks is now outpacing advances, which introduces a note of caution to the otherwise constructive backdrop.
SENTIMENT remains negative, with several indicators pointing to underlying caution among market participants. The Smart Money Flow Index continues to diverge from price, failing to confirm the current market level. Both the WSC Capitulation Index and WSC Capitulation Index FT indicate negative momentum in smart money flows, suggesting that institutional investors are not yet embracing the rally. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey turned bearish versus the previous session, with an increase in bearish sentiment among individual investors. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and the Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and do not materially influence the overall SENTIMENT assessment.
The S&P 500 remains positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Very High Reward, the most constructive of the six regime tiers the framework distinguishes. Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health both register in positive territory, supporting a Risk-On tactical environment.
Historically, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +26.9% with a Sharpe of 2.33, roughly twice the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.3%, at meaningfully lower volatility. Average maximum drawdown has been -1.4%, with an up-day rate of 56.3% across 391 historical samples since 1985.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.6% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.7% | 391 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 133 | 43.6% | 56.2% | 0.8% | -0.6% | 16.3% | 2.67 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 39.2% | 55.9% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.71 |
| Risk-Off · 29.4% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.9% | 387 | -16.4% | 49.7% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.03 |
| High Risk | 4.7% | 196 | -17.1% | 47.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.1% | -1.00 |
| Very High Risk | 9.8% | 159 | -34.0% | 48.0% | 1.5% | -1.7% | 38.2% | -0.89 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.3% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.71 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been mixed under similar Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health conditions. Positive sessions have not consistently outnumbered negative ones over the next day to one-month horizons, and the pattern does not show a clear directional bias in the near term. The qualitative outlook is neutral, with no strong historical tendency toward either sustained gains or losses over the coming weeks.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health situates the regime in a stable state, with a 71.4% probability of remaining Risk-On over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 71.4%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored maintaining exposure rather than making aggressive allocation changes. Ongoing participation has generally been rewarded, but the absence of a clear short-term edge suggests avoiding tactical overweights. The bias has leaned toward steady positioning in line with the prevailing constructive regime.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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