S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Risk-On Phase Starts, Near-Term Weakness Diverges from Long-Term
The S&P 500 finished unchanged on Thursday, closing at 7704.1 after trading within a narrow range. Despite the flat index performance, internal participation was negative, with 65.4% of constituents declining and only 34.4% advancing. New 52-week lows outpaced highs, and declining stocks accounted for a majority of trading volume, indicating that weakness was widespread across the index.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain constructive, with the Trend Trader Index Lines showing both envelopes rising, confirming the ongoing strength in the short-term price structure. The market continues to trade above the upper envelope of the Trend Trader Index, and the Modified MACD maintains a positive momentum profile. Price action remains above the 50-day EMA, and the EMA 50 Line is still rising, reinforcing the bullish bias in the short-term trend. However, the WSC Short-Term Trend Index continues to reflect a bearish undertone, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs remains subdued. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum also signals weakness, with declining issues outpacing advancers over the past month.
TREND QUALITY remains challenged, as participation and breadth measures continue to deteriorate. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA both indicate that the majority of constituents are trading below their respective moving averages, highlighting a lack of broad-based support for the prevailing trend. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily and both the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily confirm that declining stocks and volumes are outpacing advancing ones. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily further underscores this weakness, with more stocks registering new yearly lows than highs. These persistent breadth and volume headwinds continue to weigh on the overall quality of the short-term trend.
SENTIMENT has deteriorated further, as evidenced by a decline in the Sentiment Score. The CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily has shifted to a more negative stance, with increased greed among market participants now evident, a contrarian warning signal that turned bearish versus the previous session. Realized Volatility in % (10d) remains elevated, trading above its 75th percentile, which is a negative sign for near-term risk appetite. While the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) below 30 suggests the market is now extremely oversold, raising the probability of a short-lived bounce, other sentiment gauges such as the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days and Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 remain neutral and do not offset the prevailing caution.
Mid-term TREND indicators continue to reflect a constructive backdrop, with the WSC Mid-Term Price Trend remaining bullish and the market holding above its 100-day EMA. The EMA 100 Line is still rising, confirming the persistence of the mid-term uptrend. However, the WSC Trend Index continues to signal caution, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 52-week highs remains weak, indicating that the strength in the index is not broadly shared across constituents.
TREND QUALITY remains under pressure, with participation and breadth measures failing to confirm the positive trend. The Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both indicate that most stocks are trading below their respective moving averages, undermining the durability of the mid-term trend. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both show that declining stocks are outpacing advancers, while the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly turned bearish versus the previous session, highlighting weak demand for equities. These factors collectively point to a fragile trend structure.
SENTIMENT remains negative, with little improvement in risk appetite among market participants. The Smart Money Flow Index continues to diverge from price, failing to confirm the current market level, while the WSC Capitulation Index and WSC Capitulation Index FT both indicate negative momentum in smart money flows. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey reflects heightened fear, with bearish sentiment persisting. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Realized Volatility in % (20d), remain neutral, while the Hindenburg Omen continues to signal a neutral risk environment.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Weak Structural Bull Market, as defined by Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Increasing Reward and Risk-On, but Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health have deteriorated to mixed and notably soft levels. This places the market in a constructive but tactically unsettled phase, with the longer-term backdrop remaining supportive even as near-term conditions have weakened.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +38.6% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.69, roughly three times the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.5%, at elevated volatility. The average maximum drawdown stands at -1.0%, with an up-day rate of 55.7% across 98 historical samples.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Increasing Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.7% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.8% | 393 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 3.9% | 135 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 38.6% | 55.7% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.69 |
| Risk-Off · 29.3% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.8% | 390 | -16.9% | 49.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.06 |
| High Risk | 4.5% | 194 | -13.8% | 48.4% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.0% | -0.81 |
| Very High Risk | 9.9% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.5% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been muted in similar phases, with negative or flat returns more common over the next several days to a month. This near-term softness is anchored in the current Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health readings, which have signaled a loss of momentum despite the ongoing Risk-On regime. While the longer-term context remains favorable, the immediate outlook is characterized by a higher frequency of lackluster or negative sessions.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health situates the regime in a fragile state, with a 50.0% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (Increasing Reward 50.0%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored a measured approach to positioning, avoiding aggressive increases in exposure until near-term conditions improve. The bias has leaned toward maintaining existing allocations rather than adding risk, with a focus on monitoring for stabilization in the short-term indicators.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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