S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
High Reward Regime Holds, Early Risk-On Phase Remains Stable
The S&P 500 declined by 1.1% on Wednesday, closing at 7718.9 after opening at 7774.2 and trading between 7693.3 and 7789.2. Market breadth was nearly even, with 49.7% of constituents advancing and 50.3% declining, while 4.1% reached new 52-week highs and 2.3% marked new 52-week lows. Declining stocks accounted for 58.9% of total volume, indicating heavier trading on the downside.
Full Access. No Delay.
Basic members get free daily access to one selected market. Premium members get daily access to all 29 markets, including the S&P 500.
Start free · No credit card required
A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain constructive, though with some moderation versus the previous session. The Trend Trader Index Lines continue to show both envelope lines rising, confirming that the structural short-term price trend is intact. The Modified MACD maintains a positive reading, indicating that short-term trend momentum remains supportive. The market closed above its 50-day moving average, and the EMA 50 Line is still rising, both reinforcing the underlying uptrend. However, the Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum has turned negative, suggesting some deterioration in breadth, while the WSC Short-Term Trend Index continues to reflect a bearish tilt based on the percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. The Trend Trader Index itself shifted to neutral, signaling a pause in directional conviction.
TREND QUALITY in the short-term horizon has weakened, as reflected by a notable decline in the score. While the Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA remains robust, indicating broad participation above this key average, and both the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily continue to show advancing stocks and volume outpacing decliners, there are emerging pockets of weakness. The Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day MA remains below the majority threshold, highlighting a lack of broad-based support at this level and turning bearish versus the previous day. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily also turned bearish, pointing to negative volume flows. Other indicators, such as the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily, 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, and RSI-based measures, remain neutral and did not materially influence the overall assessment.
SENTIMENT remains firmly positive in the short-term, with the Sentiment Score holding at its maximum. Realized Volatility in % (10d) continues to trade below its 25th percentile, which is typically interpreted as a constructive signal for risk assets. The market environment is characterized by subdued volatility, which often supports further risk-taking. Other sentiment gauges, including the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily and the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, remain neutral, suggesting that while there is no excessive optimism, the prevailing sentiment backdrop is supportive of the current price structure.
Mid-term TREND indicators continue to reflect a constructive backdrop, with the WSC Mid-Term Price Trend maintaining a bullish stance. The market remains above its 100-day moving average, and the EMA 100 Line is still rising, both of which reinforce the positive medium-term price structure. However, the WSC Trend Index continues to signal caution, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 52-week highs remains subdued, indicating that leadership is narrowing and the broader market is not fully participating in the advance.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term horizon has deteriorated further, with the score dropping to zero. The Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both indicate that the majority of constituents are trading below these key averages, and both measures turned bearish versus the previous session. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both highlight that declining stocks and volume are outpacing advancers, underscoring a vulnerable tape. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly also confirms weak demand, as declining volume dominates. This collective weakness in participation and momentum metrics points to a fragile underlying structure despite the positive price trend.
SENTIMENT in the mid-term remains neutral, with the Sentiment Score unchanged. Realized Volatility in % (20d) continues to trade below its 25th percentile, which is a constructive signal. The WSC Capitulation Index FT has turned bullish, indicating that smart money flows are supportive, and the AAII Bulls & Bears Survey continues to reflect a structurally bullish outlook among individual investors. However, the recent triggering of the Hindenburg Omen highlights increased downside risks within a 30-day window, and the Smart Money Flow Index is not confirming the current market level. The WSC Capitulation Index also points to negative momentum in smart money flows, tempering the otherwise supportive sentiment backdrop. The Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio remains neutral.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as High Reward and Risk-On, reflecting strong Short-Term Market Health but a weaker Mid-Term Market Health reading. This combination places the market in a constructive tactical phase, though with some divergence between short- and mid-term signals.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +35.7% with a Sharpe of 2.17, roughly three times the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.5%, at broadly similar volatility. The average maximum drawdown has been limited to -0.5%, and the up-day rate is 54.98%, based on a sample of 136 episodes.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.7% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.8% | 393 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 136 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 4.0% | 99 | 37.8% | 55.5% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.8% | 1.66 |
| Risk-Off · 29.3% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.8% | 390 | -16.9% | 49.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.06 |
| High Risk | 4.6% | 196 | -12.6% | 48.8% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 16.9% | -0.74 |
| Very High Risk | 9.9% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.5% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been mixed under similar conditions, with neither positive nor negative returns dominating over the next day to one month. The current Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health scores suggest a lack of clear directional bias in the immediate period, and the historical pattern does not indicate a strong tendency for outsized gains or losses in the near term.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in an extremely stable state. The probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days is 97.8% (High Reward 60.9%, Very High Reward 34.8%, Increasing Reward 2.2%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored maintaining exposure rather than making aggressive allocation changes. The bias has leaned toward ongoing participation, with a focus on monitoring for shifts in the underlying health signals.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You are currently viewing a placeholder content from X. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
More Information