S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Risk-Off Phase Early, Short-Term Score Flags Adverse Shift
The S&P 500 advanced 0.9% on Friday, closing at 7657.0 after trading between 7636.8 and 7677.0. Market breadth was positive, with 67.5% of constituents rising and 65.8% of volume concentrated in advancing stocks, while 2.2% of stocks reached new 52-week highs and 2.4% marked new 52-week lows.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain broadly negative, despite a modest improvement in the aggregate score. The Trend Trader Index shows the market trading below its lower envelope, with both envelope lines declining, underscoring a structurally damaged short-term price trend. The Modified MACD continues to signal negative momentum, and the Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum confirms that declining issues are outpacing advancers. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index also reflects a bearish environment, with a low percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. While the market closed above its 50-day moving average and the EMA 50 Line is rising, these positives are outweighed by the persistent weakness in underlying breadth and momentum.
TREND QUALITY remains deeply negative, with no improvement from the previous observation. The declining Trend Trader Index Lines highlight a deterioration in the structural integrity of the short-term trend. Participation remains weak, as the Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages both indicate that the majority of constituents are trading below these key levels. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily and both Modified McClellan Oscillators (price and volume) confirm that declining stocks and volumes are dominating, while New Highs vs. New Lows Daily shows more stocks hitting new lows than highs. These factors collectively reinforce the fragile quality of the current short-term trend.
SENTIMENT remains highly positive, unchanged from the previous observation, as measured by the Sentiment Score. Realized Volatility (10d) is trading below its 25th percentile, which is typically interpreted as a constructive signal for risk-taking. However, other sentiment-related indicators such as the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily, 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, and the percentage of stocks with extreme RSI(14) readings remain neutral, providing little additional directional insight. The overall sentiment backdrop is supportive, but this optimism is not yet translating into broad-based price participation or momentum.
Mid-term TREND indicators continue to present a constructive picture, with the WSC Mid-Term Price Trend and the market's position above the 100-day moving average both confirming a bullish stance. The EMA 100 Line is rising, further supporting the positive trend. Participation has improved, as the Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day and 150-Day Moving Averages both indicate that a majority of constituents are trading above these levels, and both measures turned bullish versus the previous trading day. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly also reflects healthy demand, with advancing volume outpacing declining volume. However, the WSC Trend Index remains a point of caution, as the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs is still subdued.
TREND QUALITY holds steady at a positive level, with no change from the previous observation. The underlying structure is supported by broad participation above the 100- and 150-day moving averages, and the EMA 100 Line continues to rise. However, the Advance-/Decline Index Weekly and Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly both turned bearish, indicating that declining issues and volumes are beginning to outpace advancers on a weekly basis. This shift introduces a note of caution regarding the durability of the current mid-term trend, even as the overall quality remains robust.
SENTIMENT remains negative, unchanged from the previous observation, as reflected in the Sentiment Score. The Smart Money Flow Index is not confirming the current market level, and the WSC Capitulation Index FT continues to signal a negative outlook from smart money participants. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey turned bearish, highlighting increased fear among individual investors. On the positive side, the WSC Capitulation Index itself remains supportive, and realized volatility (20d) is below its 25th percentile, which is typically a constructive sign. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and do not materially influence the overall assessment.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by elevated Long-Term Market Health. Despite this supportive long-term backdrop, the current regime reflects an Increasing Risk phase, with Short-Term Market Health notably weak and Mid-Term Market Health holding at moderate levels. This combination places the market in a Risk-Off stance, with near-term deterioration concentrated in the short-term indicators.
Historically, this regime has delivered an annualized return of -16.7% with a Sharpe ratio of -1.05, compared to a buy-and-hold baseline of +12.4% per year and a Sharpe of 0.72. Volatility is broadly similar to buy-and-hold, while the average maximum drawdown is -0.9%. The up-day rate is 49.7%. The sample covers 389 episodes since 1985.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Increasing Risk| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.8% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.9% | 393 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 135 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 38.6% | 55.7% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.69 |
| Risk-Off · 29.2% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.8% | 389 | -16.7% | 49.6% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.05 |
| High Risk | 4.5% | 193 | -15.9% | 48.1% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.0% | -0.93 |
| Very High Risk | 9.9% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.4% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health scores point to a near-term outlook that has historically produced a mixed pattern of outcomes. While negative returns have not been dominant, positive outcomes have not been reliably persistent either, and the balance of risk has tended to be less favorable than the long-term backdrop might suggest. The current phase does not present a clear directional bias for the coming days and weeks, and historical episodes have shown a tendency for both advances and setbacks within similar regimes.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in a very stable state, with a 93.8% probability of remaining in Risk-Off territory over the next five trading days (Increasing Risk 63.7%, High Risk 30.0%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored a cautious approach to positioning, with a bias toward reducing exposure or avoiding aggressive allocation shifts. Participation has generally been less rewarded during comparable phases, and the prevailing bias has leaned toward defensive positioning until short-term conditions improve.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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