S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
High Reward Regime Starts, Risk-On Phase Early and Extremely Stable
The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% on Friday, closing at 7811.5 after trading between 7779.3 and 7820.6, with 62.1% of constituents rising and 2.9% reaching new 52-week highs, while 1.6% marked new 52-week lows; advancing stocks accounted for 49.5% of volume.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain constructive, with the Trend Trader Index Lines showing both envelopes rising, confirming the ongoing strength of the short-term price trend. The market continues to trade above the upper envelope of the Trend Trader Index, reinforcing a bullish bias. The Modified MACD sustains its positive momentum, and the close above the 50-day EMA, which itself is rising, further underpins the prevailing uptrend. However, the Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum remains negative, highlighting some internal weakness among advancing and declining stocks. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index continues to signal caution, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs remains subdued. Overall, the short-term TREND structure is robust, but not without pockets of underlying breadth fragility.
TREND QUALITY improved notably, advancing from its previous reading as participation broadened. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA turned bullish versus the prior session, indicating a greater share of constituents are now participating in the short-term rally. Both the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and the Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily also turned bullish, reflecting a shift in momentum as advancing stocks and volumes outpace decliners. The New Highs vs. New Lows Daily indicator continues to show more stocks reaching new yearly highs than lows, supporting the quality of the uptrend. Nonetheless, the Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day MA remains negative, with most stocks still below this threshold, and the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily continues to reflect negative volume flows. These mixed signals suggest that while TREND QUALITY has improved, breadth and volume participation are not yet fully aligned with the headline strength.
SENTIMENT remains firmly positive, with the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily holding neutral and not detracting from the overall constructive tone. The 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days indicator remains neutral, indicating no extreme institutional buying or selling pressure at present. The Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) below 30 continues to highlight an extremely oversold condition, with more than a quarter of constituents registering oversold readings in the past three days, which increases the likelihood of a short-lived oversold bounce. Conversely, the Percentage of Stocks with RSI(14) above 70 remains neutral, suggesting the market is not yet overbought. Realized Volatility (10d) is trading below its 25th percentile, which is supportive for risk-taking. Overall, SENTIMENT indicators continue to favor a positive short-term outlook, with oversold conditions and low volatility providing a constructive backdrop.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain supportive, with the WSC Mid-Term Price Trend confirming a bullish stance and the market closing above its 100-day EMA, which continues to rise. These signals underscore the resilience of the mid-term uptrend. However, the WSC Trend Index continues to flag caution, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 52-week highs remains weak, indicating that leadership is still relatively narrow. The underlying price trend on a 100-day and 150-day basis remains negative, as the majority of stocks are trading below these moving averages. This divergence between index-level strength and constituent participation suggests that while the mid-term TREND is intact, it is not broadly supported across the index.
TREND QUALITY remains subdued at zero, unchanged from the previous observation, reflecting persistent weakness in breadth and momentum participation. The Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both remain negative, with most stocks still below these key thresholds. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly continues to indicate that declining stocks are outpacing advancers on a weekly basis, and the Advance-/Decline Index Weekly confirms that the number of declining issues exceeds advancing ones, highlighting a vulnerable tape. The Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly also remains negative, with declining volume outpacing advancing volume, pointing to weak demand. These indicators collectively underscore that, despite headline index strength, the quality of the mid-term trend remains fragile.
SENTIMENT in the mid-term remains neutral, with no material change from the previous session. Realized Volatility (20d) continues to trade below its 25th percentile, which is a constructive signal for risk appetite. The WSC Capitulation Index FT indicates that smart money flows are supportive, and the AAII Bulls & Bears Survey turned bullish versus the prior day, signaling a structural bull-market bias among individual investors. However, the Hindenburg Omen remains active, highlighting increased downside risk within a 30-day window due to weak market breadth. The Smart Money Flow Index does not confirm current market levels, and the WSC Capitulation Index shows negative momentum in smart money flows. The Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio remains neutral. Overall, SENTIMENT is mixed, with positive signals from volatility and survey data offset by cautionary breadth and smart money indicators.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Weak Structural Bull Market, as defined by Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as High Reward and Risk-On, reflecting a tactical environment where Short-Term Market Health is notably strong while Mid-Term Market Health remains subdued. This combination places the market in a constructive but not fully robust phase, with mixed momentum across time horizons.
Historically, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +35.7% with a Sharpe ratio of 2.17, roughly three times the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.5%, at broadly similar volatility. The average maximum drawdown stands at -0.5%, and the up-day rate is 54.98%, based on a sample of 136 episodes since 1985.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.7% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.8% | 393 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 136 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 4.0% | 99 | 37.8% | 55.5% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.8% | 1.66 |
| Risk-Off · 29.3% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.8% | 390 | -16.9% | 49.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.06 |
| High Risk | 4.6% | 196 | -12.6% | 48.8% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 16.9% | -0.74 |
| Very High Risk | 9.9% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.5% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically been mixed under similar conditions, with positive and negative returns occurring at comparable rates over the next day, week, and month. The current Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health scores suggest that near-term advances are possible but not reliably persistent, and the historical pattern does not show a clear bias toward sustained upside in the immediate period. As such, the short-term outlook is neutral, with no strong directional tendency evident.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in an extremely stable state, with a 97.7% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (High Reward 59.1%, Very High Reward 36.4%, Increasing Reward 2.3%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored maintaining exposure rather than aggressively increasing or reducing risk. Positioning has typically leaned toward ongoing participation, allowing for tactical flexibility as conditions evolve. The bias has generally been to remain engaged while avoiding significant allocation shifts.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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