S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Very High Reward Regime Persists, Stability Remains Extreme
The S&P 500 declined by 0.2% on Friday, closing at 7785.8 after trading between 7776.3 and 7810.0. Market breadth was mixed, with 50.9% of constituents advancing and 47.4% declining, while 3.5% reached new 52-week highs and 0.2% marked new 52-week lows. Trading volume was similarly balanced, as 51.4% of volume was attributed to advancing stocks and 46.5% to decliners.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain robust, with the Trend Trader Index showing the market trading above its upper envelope, reflecting a strong bullish bias. Both envelope lines of the Trend Trader Index Lines continue to rise, confirming the persistence of the prevailing uptrend. The Modified MACD maintains a positive reading, indicating that short-term momentum remains constructive. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum also supports this view, as advancing issues continue to outpace decliners. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index highlights broad-based participation, with a significant proportion of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. The market remains firmly above its 50-day moving average, and the EMA 50 Line continues to rise, further reinforcing the positive short-term TREND structure.
TREND QUALITY in the short-term remains at its highest level, with multiple breadth and participation metrics confirming the integrity of the uptrend. The Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA both indicate that the majority of constituents are trading above their respective moving averages, underscoring widespread participation in the rally. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily continues to show positive volume flows, while the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily both reflect that advancing stocks and volume are outpacing their declining counterparts. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily remains supportive, with more stocks registering new yearly highs than lows, further validating the quality of the current short-term advance.
Short-term SENTIMENT remains constructive, with Realized Volatility (10d) trading below its 25th percentile, suggesting a calm and supportive risk environment. The CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily remains neutral, indicating a balanced options market without excessive hedging or speculation. Both the 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days and the percentage of stocks with RSI(14) above 70 or below 30 are neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold extremes are present. The absence of significant short-term sentiment excesses, combined with low realized volatility, continues to underpin a positive short-term risk backdrop.
Mid-term TREND indicators continue to reflect a constructive environment, with the WSC Trend Index showing a broad base of stocks trading above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend remains bullish, and the market has closed above its 100-day moving average, with the EMA 100 Line still rising. These signals collectively point to a sustained and healthy mid-term uptrend, with no deterioration observed since the previous report.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term remains strong, as the Percentage of Stocks Above 100-Day MA and 150-Day MA both indicate that a majority of constituents are participating in the advance. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both show that advancing stocks are outpacing decliners, while the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly confirms that volume is favoring advancing issues. The WSC Capitulation Index FT continues to signal positive flows from smart money, further supporting the quality of the mid-term trend.
Mid-term SENTIMENT remains a point of caution, with the Smart Money Flow Index not confirming the current market level and the WSC Capitulation Index showing negative momentum in smart money flows. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey continues to reflect elevated bearishness among individual investors, indicating increased fear. Other sentiment-related indicators, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Realized Volatility (20d), remain neutral, while the Hindenburg Omen does not currently signal elevated risk. Overall, mid-term SENTIMENT remains subdued and unchanged from the previous observation.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently strong Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Very High Reward, the most constructive of the six regime tiers, with both Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health holding at elevated levels. This backdrop reflects a sustained Risk-On phase that has already extended well beyond its historical average duration.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of 26.9% with a Sharpe ratio of 2.33, roughly twice the buy-and-hold baseline of 12.3%, at meaningfully lower volatility. The average maximum drawdown stands at -1.39%, and the up-day rate is 56.3%, based on a sample of 391 episodes.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.6% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.7% | 391 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 133 | 43.6% | 56.2% | 0.8% | -0.6% | 16.3% | 2.67 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 39.2% | 55.9% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.71 |
| Risk-Off · 29.4% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.9% | 387 | -16.4% | 49.7% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.03 |
| High Risk | 4.7% | 196 | -17.1% | 47.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.1% | -1.00 |
| Very High Risk | 9.8% | 159 | -34.0% | 48.0% | 1.5% | -1.7% | 38.2% | -0.89 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.3% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.71 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes in this regime have historically been mixed, with a modest balance between positive and negative sessions over the next day and week, but a clear tendency for positive returns to dominate by the one-month horizon. This outlook is anchored in the current strength of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health, which have typically supported a constructive bias over the coming weeks.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health situates the regime as extremely stable, with a 100.0% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 100.0%).
The historical pattern in Very High Reward, Risk-On regimes has favored maintaining or incrementally increasing equity exposure. Participation has generally been rewarded, with the bias leaning toward ongoing engagement rather than defensive repositioning.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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