S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Risk-Off Phase Starts, Short-Term Score Diverges Sharply
The S&P 500 declined by 0.7% on Tuesday, closing at 7631.5 after trading between 7611.2 and 7663.6. Market breadth was negative, with 66.3% of constituents declining and only 32.9% advancing, while 62.6% of trading volume was concentrated in declining stocks. New 52-week lows outpaced highs, with 2.2% of stocks hitting new lows compared to 1.8% reaching new highs.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators deteriorated notably versus the previous observation. The Trend Trader Index, which assesses the short-term price trend based on 20-day rolling highs and lows, turned bearish as the market moved below the lower envelope line. The Modified MACD also signaled negative momentum, while the Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum confirmed that declining issues are outpacing advancers. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index, which measures the percentage of stocks trading above their 26-week highs, also turned bearish, reflecting a broad-based loss of short-term trend strength. Despite the market closing above its 50-day moving average and the EMA 50 Line continuing to rise, the overall short-term TREND has weakened considerably.
Short-term TREND QUALITY retreated to zero, reflecting a marked loss of structural integrity in the short-term price action. The majority of stocks are now trading below both their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, as indicated by the Percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day MA and Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day MA, both of which turned bearish versus the previous day. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily and both Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily all point to negative breadth and volume momentum, with declining stocks and volume outpacing advancers. New Highs vs. New Lows Daily further confirms this deterioration, as more stocks are hitting new yearly lows than highs. Collectively, these signals underscore a significant decline in short-term TREND QUALITY.
Short-term SENTIMENT remains robust, with the Sentiment Score holding at its maximum reading. Realized Volatility in % (10d) continues to trade below its 25th percentile, which is typically interpreted as a constructive backdrop for risk assets. However, other sentiment-related indicators such as the CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily, 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, and the percentage of stocks with RSI(14) above 70 or below 30 all remained neutral, providing little additional directional insight. Despite the negative shift in TREND and TREND QUALITY, the absence of extreme volatility or panic in these measures suggests that investor positioning has not yet capitulated.
Mid-term TREND indicators remain firmly positive, with no change from the previous observation. The WSC Trend Index continues to show a broad-based uptrend, as a high percentage of stocks trade above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend and the EMA 100 Line both confirm that the market is trading above and maintaining a rising 100-day moving average. Participation remains strong, as the majority of stocks are above their 100-day and 150-day moving averages, reinforcing the resilience of the mid-term TREND.
Mid-term TREND QUALITY held at its maximum reading, reflecting persistent structural strength in the intermediate-term technical picture. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Advance-/Decline Index Weekly both indicate that advancing stocks and volume are outpacing decliners, while the Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly confirms healthy demand. Realized Volatility in % (20d) remains below its 25th percentile, further supporting the constructive environment. The WSC Capitulation Index continues to show positive momentum in smart money flows, although the Smart Money Flow Index and WSC Capitulation Index FT highlight some divergence, as smart money is not fully confirming the current market level. Nonetheless, the overall TREND QUALITY remains robust.
Mid-term SENTIMENT remains subdued, with the Sentiment Score unchanged at a low level. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey continues to reflect elevated bearishness among individual investors, signaling persistent caution or fear regarding the market's outlook. The Smart Money Flow Index and WSC Capitulation Index FT both suggest that smart money participants are not fully endorsing the current rally, which tempers the otherwise positive technical backdrop. Other sentiment measures, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral and do not materially influence the assessment. Overall, mid-term SENTIMENT continues to lag the strength seen in TREND and TREND QUALITY.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently strong Long-Term Market Health. Despite this supportive long-term backdrop, the current regime reflects an Increasing Risk phase, with Short-Term Market Health notably weak and Mid-Term Market Health remaining elevated. This divergence signals a tactical environment where near-term caution is warranted even as the broader structural trend remains intact.
Historically, since 1985, this regime has delivered an annualized return of -16.7% with a Sharpe of -1.05, against a buy-and-hold baseline of +12.5% per year. Volatility is broadly similar to buy-and-hold, while the average maximum drawdown stands at -0.9%. The up-day rate is 49.7% over a sample of 388 episodes.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Increasing Risk| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.8% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.9% | 392 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 135 | 35.7% | 55.0% | 0.8% | -0.7% | 16.5% | 2.17 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 38.6% | 55.7% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.69 |
| Risk-Off · 29.2% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.8% | 388 | -16.7% | 49.6% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.05 |
| High Risk | 4.5% | 193 | -15.9% | 48.1% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.0% | -0.93 |
| Very High Risk | 9.9% | 157 | -32.1% | 48.4% | 1.5% | -1.6% | 37.9% | -0.85 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.5% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.72 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health scores indicate a mixed short-term outlook. Historically, similar phases have produced a balance of positive and negative outcomes in the immediate term, with a modest tendency for positive returns to become more frequent over the following weeks. The near-term path has not consistently favored either direction, but the pattern suggests that downside risk is concentrated in the early portion of the regime, while recovery potential increases as the phase matures.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health places the regime in a very stable state, with a 91.3% probability of remaining in Risk-Off territory over the next five trading days (Increasing Risk 89.1%, High Risk 2.2%).
The historical pattern in this regime has favored a measured approach to positioning, with a bias toward reducing exposure during the initial stages of Increasing Risk. Participation has generally been more selective, reflecting the elevated likelihood of near-term drawdowns. The bias has leaned toward defensive positioning until clearer signs of stabilization emerge.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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