S&P 500 · SPX · North America
The daily data-driven S&P 500 analysis: where the S&P 500 stands, how Trend, Breadth and Investor Sentiment define the current Market Regime, and how comparable setups have unfolded since 1985.
Very High Reward Regime Persists, Stability Remains Extreme
The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% on Friday, closing at 7757.6 after trading between 7719.2 and 7763.1. Market breadth was positive, with 64.6% of constituents rising and 68.0% of volume concentrated in advancing stocks, while 4.3% reached new 52-week highs and only 0.2% marked new lows, indicating widespread participation in the session’s gains.
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A compact analysis of the S&P 500 indicators: Trend, Trend Quality (Breadth), and Sentiment across the short- and mid-term horizon, including Smart Money and Dumb Money positioning.
Short-term TREND indicators remain robust, with the Trend Trader Index Lines showing both envelopes continuing to rise, confirming the persistence of the prevailing bullish price structure. The market remains above the upper envelope of the Trend Trader Index, and the Modified MACD continues to reflect positive momentum. The Advance-/Decline 20 Days Momentum also supports the ongoing uptrend, as advancing issues outpace decliners. The WSC Short-Term Trend Index highlights broad-based participation, with a significant proportion of stocks trading above their 26-week highs. The market's close above the 50-day moving average, alongside a rising EMA 50 Line, further underscores the strength of the short-term TREND.
TREND QUALITY in the short-term remains at its maximum, with the majority of stocks trading above both their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating strong breadth and participation. Upside-/Downside Volume Index Daily continues to show positive volume flows, while the Modified McClellan Oscillator Daily and Modified McClellan Volume Oscillator Daily both confirm that advancing stocks and volumes are outpacing their declining counterparts. The New Highs vs. New Lows Daily metric remains constructive, with more stocks reaching new yearly highs than lows. These signals collectively reinforce the high quality of the current short-term TREND.
Short-term SENTIMENT remains cautious, as realized volatility over the past 10 days is elevated, trading above its 75th percentile, which is a notable negative. The CBOE Total Put-/Call Ratio Daily, 9-to-1 Up-/Down Days, and both the percentage of stocks with RSI(14) above 70 and below 30 remain neutral, offering little directional insight. Despite the strong price action and breadth, the lack of a supportive SENTIMENT backdrop suggests that investors are not fully embracing the rally, and some caution is warranted given the volatility profile.
Mid-term TREND indicators continue to signal a constructive environment, with the WSC Trend Index showing a broad base of stocks trading above their 52-week highs. The WSC Mid-Term Price Trend remains bullish, and the market has closed above its 100-day moving average, with the EMA 100 Line still rising. These signals collectively confirm that the mid-term price structure is intact and supportive of further strength.
TREND QUALITY in the mid-term has advanced to its maximum, reflecting a notable improvement from the previous observation. The majority of stocks are now trading above both their 100-day and 150-day moving averages, underscoring the breadth of the uptrend. The Modified McClellan Oscillator Weekly and Upside-/Downside Volume Index Weekly both turned bullish versus the prior day, indicating that advancing stocks and volumes are now outpacing decliners on a weekly basis. The Advance-/Decline Index Weekly also confirms a constructive tape, with more advancing than declining issues.
Mid-term SENTIMENT remains negative, despite a modest improvement in the score. Realized volatility over the past 20 days is still elevated, trading above its 75th percentile, which is a concern. The Smart Money Flow Index is not confirming the current market level, and the WSC Capitulation Index continues to show negative momentum in smart money flows. The AAII Bulls & Bears Survey reflects increased fear among individual investors. However, the WSC Capitulation Index FT turned bullish versus the previous day, suggesting some improvement in smart money outlook. Other sentiment indicators, such as the Z-Score Put-/Call Ratio and Hindenburg Omen, remain neutral.
The S&P 500 is positioned within a Structural Bull Market, as defined by persistently elevated Long-Term Market Health. The current regime is classified as Very High Reward, the most constructive of the six regime tiers the framework distinguishes. Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health both register at strong levels, supporting a Risk-On tactical environment.
Historically, since 1985 and across 391 samples, this regime has delivered an annualized return of +26.9% with a Sharpe of 2.33, roughly twice the buy-and-hold baseline of +12.3%, at meaningfully lower volatility. The average maximum drawdown stands at -1.39%, and the up-day rate is 56.3%.
Historical return of the S&P 500 je Marktphase: die Entwicklung der sechs Market Regimes seit 1985 im Vergleich zur Buy-and-Hold-Benchmark. Die aktuelle Marktphase ist als Aktiv gekennzeichnet.
Very High Reward| Market Regime | Zeitanteil | Episoden | Rendite p.a. | Positive Tage | Ø positiver Tag | Ø negativer Tag | Volatilität | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On · 70.6% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Very High Reward | 62.7% | 391 | 26.9% | 56.3% | 0.6% | -0.5% | 11.5% | 2.33 |
| High Reward | 4.0% | 133 | 43.6% | 56.2% | 0.8% | -0.6% | 16.3% | 2.67 |
| Increasing Reward | 3.9% | 98 | 39.2% | 55.9% | 1.1% | -1.1% | 22.9% | 1.71 |
| Risk-Off · 29.4% der Zeit | ||||||||
| Increasing Risk | 14.9% | 387 | -16.4% | 49.7% | 0.7% | -0.8% | 15.9% | -1.03 |
| High Risk | 4.7% | 196 | -17.1% | 47.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 17.1% | -1.00 |
| Very High Risk | 9.8% | 159 | -34.0% | 48.0% | 1.5% | -1.7% | 38.2% | -0.89 |
| Benchmark · Buy & Hold | ||||||||
| All Periods | 100.0% | n/a | 12.3% | 54.4% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 17.3% | 0.71 |
Returns annualized; up-day share, average daily returns, volatility and Sharpe Ratio based on historical daily data since 1985. Past performance is no guide to future results.
Short-term outcomes have historically favored positive returns under similar Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health conditions. While the pattern is mixed across horizons, the near-term has seen a higher frequency of positive outcomes, particularly over the next week. The current setup suggests a constructive backdrop for ongoing participation, with limited evidence of near-term downside dominance.
The current combination of Short-Term and Mid-Term Market Health situates the regime as extremely stable, with a 100.0% probability of remaining in Risk-On territory over the next five trading days (Very High Reward 100.0%).
The historical pattern has favored maintaining or incrementally increasing exposure in this regime. The bias has leaned toward ongoing participation rather than defensive repositioning.
WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research on the S&P 500 every trading day. With a free Basic account you get full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard.
See This Week's Free Market →The current classification is shown at the top of this page and is updated after the close on every trading day. It is based on the S&P 500 Market Regime, the market phase derived from trend, market breadth and investor sentiment. Instead of price targets, the analysis shows how the S&P 500 has performed in comparable conditions since 1985. The freely available report is published with a delay; members receive it on the day of publication.
The answer is provided by the six-level scale at the top of this page. The upper three levels (Risk-On) indicate a constructive, broadly bullish environment, the lower three (Risk-Off) a defensive, broadly bearish environment. In addition, the long-term Market Health Score, a measure of market health from 0 to 100, shows whether the S&P 500 is trading in a bull or bear market on a structural level: readings of 50 and above indicate a bull market, readings below 50 a bear market.
Chapter 01 covers the latest session and which indicators changed. Structurally, a single down day rarely changes the underlying picture: the Market Regime is derived from trend, breadth and sentiment across more than 40 indicators, not from one session. The page shows whether the latest move has shifted the regime or left it intact.
Nobody can predict that with certainty. Instead, Chapter 04 shows the probability that the current market phase of the S&P 500 has persisted or shifted in comparable historical conditions since 1985. This provides a statistical expectation for the coming trading days, not price targets.
The long-term outlook is derived from the structural market status and historical statistics: Chapter 04 shows how often the S&P 500 was trading higher twelve months after comparable market phases and what the average development looked like. This is a probability-based assessment built on data since 1985, not a prediction.
Indications are provided by the sentiment indicators in Chapter 02, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money, meaning institutional and retail investors. Extreme euphoria has historically served as a warning signal, while extreme fear often acts as a contrarian indicator. The current state of investor sentiment is published on every trading day.
No. Classic forecasts provide price targets and chart levels. Instead, this page determines the current market phase of the S&P 500 on every trading day based on trend, market breadth and investor sentiment, and shows how comparable phases have developed since 1985. Probabilities instead of price targets: that is the data-driven form of an outlook.
In part. The indicators behind the Market Regime are technical: trend direction, moving averages, momentum and market breadth, combined with investor sentiment and smart money positioning. The difference lies in the interpretation. Instead of reading chart patterns, the signals are aggregated into a single score and compared with the historical record.
A Market Regime describes where a market stands as of the latest close on a six-level scale, from Very High Reward to Very High Risk. The upper three levels are considered Risk-On, the lower three Risk-Off. The classification describes the risk-reward environment the S&P 500 is trading in, not a price target.
Market Health is a measure of the market's condition: a composite score from 0 to 100, calculated separately for the short-, medium- and long-term horizon. It combines three dimensions: Trend shows whether the market is moving up, down or sideways. Market breadth (Trend Quality) measures how many stocks are actually participating in the move. Sentiment captures investor mood, including the positioning of Smart Money and Dumb Money. Readings above 50 indicate a constructive environment.
Risk-On comprises the three constructive Market Regimes Very High Reward, High Reward and Increasing Reward. Risk-Off comprises Increasing Risk, High Risk and Very High Risk. This distinction matters because the six Market Regimes have developed very differently since 1985. The table above shows, for each Market Regime since 1985, the annualized return, the share of positive days, the volatility and the Sharpe Ratio compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark.
After the close on every trading day. WallStreetCourier publishes end-of-day research only. Intraday or live data is not offered.
A free Basic account provides full access to one market every week: Daily Morning Briefing, Market Regime Research, Market Health and the complete Indicator Dashboard. The freely available market changes every Saturday. No credit card is required.
No. WallStreetCourier publishes quantitative market research for informational purposes. It describes current market conditions but does not provide recommendations to act. The historical performance of a Market Regime is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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